Time to Short the Kiwi Again? – Closed All Orders

Trade Update: 2011-12-06 05:56
So much for counting on the NFP for a boost! NZD/USD was stuck in its range even after the release of the U.S. jobs figures, probably because the actual figure came closely in line with consensus. The Kiwi didn’t rally despite the significant drop in the U.S. jobless rate either!

NZD/USD Trade Update

I guess traders are feeling hesitant to take any large positions again prior to the EU summit which will be taking place this week. However, NZD/USD seems to be slowly edging downwards today since the RBA decided to cut rates by 25 basis points during today’s Asian session. With that, the pair is now 150 pips away from my desired entry point and I think it’d be best to cancel my open orders for now.

That means I don’t have a trade for last week and I’ll have to step up my efforts to find a really good setup this time! If you have any ideas that you’d like to share, you know where I’m at!

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Happy time

Trade Idea: 2011-12-02 01:22
If you think that my last NZD/USD trade was a pretty good one, then you should see the setup that I spotted this time!

NZD/USD is currently hanging around the .7800 area on the daily chart, a level which is lining up nicely with the 50% Fib level. Stochastic hasn’t reached and crossed the overbought region though, so maybe it still has some more room to rise especially when the NFP report coming out today prints better than October’s figures.

NZD/USD Trade Idea

I’m thinking I could still short at .7900 since it lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. It’s probably because it’s also near a potential falling trendline resistance! Hopefully the price action and Stochastic will be overbought by then, which could provide more support to my trade idea.

On the fundamental side of the trade, I figured that the rising gold prices won’t have too big an impact on the Kiwi, at least not as big as its impact on the Aussie. At this point I’m counting on China’s surprisingly weak manufacturing PMI numbers and the PBoC’s RRR cut early this week to weigh on the comdoll.

So far here are my plans for my trade:

Short NZD/USD at .7900, place stop loss at .8020, move stop loss to break even if it moved my way by 120 pips, and then set ultimate profit target at .7400.

Of course, traders can always go back to the market rally that we’ve been seeing for the past couple of days, so I’ll make sure I’ll stick around during the NFP release. In the meantime, I’ll read up on Forex Gump‘s take on the upcoming NFP.

What do you think of my trade idea? Will price action reach my target, or should I tweak a few details here and there? As always, you know when to reach me!

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Let’s close the week strong! Get ALL the pips!

Happy time

  • Enkhuush

    i think it worth take a shot. 

    • happypip

      Yeah that’s what I’m thinking too. I hope my order gets triggered! 🙂

  • Kioniboy84

    Yes there is bearish divergence on the nzdusd daily.

    • happypip

      Hopefully Stochastic reaches and crosses the overbought region. It has to trigger my orders first though :))

  • Greg

    Am I correct in saying another head and shoulder pattern forming on the daily chart Happy? If so, then that would be a sexy set up…yes???

    • happypip

      Hey Greg! Which levels are you looking at? I’m probably squishing my chart too much. And of course head and shoulder patters are always sexy setups :))

  • pipisahellofadrug

    I will be eyeing the 61.8 percent level also, the two previous retracements of the downtrend on the Daily found resistance at the 61.8% before resuming the downtrend again.

    • happypip

      Hmm it looks like it won’t reach that area anymore though. I’m seeing dojis on the daily timeframe…

  • Shaka

    Hmmmm…not sure about that one.  If I did it i would probably put my stops waaaaaaaaaay above .80.  I live in NZ and the mentality here is VERY antipodean.  The currency (and the people) tend to over react to news from Europe.

    Even slightly positive news, that might not even involve the slightest indication of debt crisis resolution, usually results in buying that can push it up a couple of cents.

    Fundys are probably more reliable for this right now.