Shorting USD/CAD Again! – Third Win in a Row!

Trade Closed: 2012-02-28 00:53

Hooray for my third win in a row! Just when I thought that I had missed the bus, USD/CAD went back up and triggered my orders!

Okay, I know I promised in my trading resolutions that I wouldn’t leave a position open over the weekend, but I figured that I was taking a swing trade, and that the range that I spotted was still valid anyway.

USD/CAD Range Update

Good thing I took a chance on being more flexible! USD/CAD climbed not only to parity on Monday, but it also triggered my additional short order during the London session.

Then, when rising oil prices and concerns over S&P placing Greece on selective default hit the markets, USD/CAD crashed back below parity and is now hovering around 10 pips from my profit target.

However, I thought it best to just lock in my profits for now as I spotted a couple of early exit signals on the 1-hour time frame. As I marked on the chart above, stochastic was already deep in the oversold area while a potential bullish divergence was brewing. Hey, no one got hurt by taking profits early, right?

Here’s how it turned out:

P/L: 40 pips my first position and 70 pips on my second position, for an average of 55 pips. That amounted to a 0.55% gain on my trading account!

The quest isn’t over yet though. As Dr. Pipslow mentioned in his recent article, trading is a grind where we experience trading ups and downs. I shouldn’t get too confident after this one, and should focus on spotting my next profitable setup.

Oh, and before I forget, please show some love for the FX-men by voting for BabyPips.com in FXStreet.com’s Forex Best Awards 2012. We got nominated for Best Fundamental Analysis, Best Educational Content, and Best New Contributor! Boo yah!

Trade Idea: 2012-02-23 00:20

When it comes to ranges, there’s only one pair that I really trust and that’s USD/CAD! I guess you can say I’m still pretty giddy about my short USD/CAD win from last week, but I have a bunch of other reasons for shorting this pair yet again.

USD/CAD Range Update

For one thing, the pair is edging back up to the top of the range just above parity. And if you got a chance to check out the weekly levels in my Comdoll Trading Kit for this week, you’d know that this resistance area is closely in line with top WATR and the previous week high. Oh, and did I mention that the previous week high happens to coincide with the 1.0050 minor psychological level?

It looks like most of the comdolls are moving sideways but I picked USD/CAD because the Loonie continues to draw support from rising oil prices. As Forex Gump mentioned in his article about Iran vs. The West, mounting tensions about crude oil exports could restrict supply, and this could drive black crack and the Loonie higher.

Here are my trade details:
Short USD/CAD at parity, stop loss at 1.0070, target at .9950. I’ll risk 0.25% of my account on this position.

Short USD/CAD at top WATR (1.0030), stop loss at 1.0070, target at .9950. I’ll risk another 0.25% of my account on this position.

Besides, based on the schedule of comdoll events for this week, only Canada has some reports set for release before the end of the week. I’ll be keeping an eye out for the BOC review due today as well as BOC Governor Carney’s speech tomorrow. I’ll also be on the lookout for early exit signals, whether technical or fundamental, so make sure you’re following me through any of these accounts to stay in the loop!

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Other Popular Articles:

2012 Gold and Oil Predictions Comdoll Trading Kit (February 20-24, 2012) USD/CAD trade What is STA strategy?

  • Foricks

    Great minds think alike…I went short at 1.0030 as well.  Triggered at 4am EST.  Still in the trade and looking for the bottom of the channel at .9875. Am I being too greedy?

    • happypip

      Cool! It looks more of a range to me than a channel, but it does look like this pair has some energy left to go lower. Maybe adjust your stops to lock in some pips if you’re not so sure. Best of luck to ya! :)

      • Foricks

        Yeah, it did go a little rangy there.  I think that’s why I didn’t hold out for much more than .9875.  Just hit my TP for 155!  BTW, congrats on the nominations on FXStreet.  I voted for you guys, of course…
        Cheers,
        Foricks

  • Jānis Pusplatais

    Going quite well, thanks for great idea ;)

    • happypip

      Did you take this setup too? I locked in profits early but it looks like it could still dip to .9950. Let me know if you have any great trade ideas too! :)