Rising Wedge on AUDUSD – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2010-08-06 2:00

PoD Chart

I guess that’s it for my AUDUSD trade! I decided to close it before the US non-farm payrolls report comes out and drives the markets nuts. I don’t want to get caught up in that storm!

I was in the positive for almost the entire time I had this trade open. Unfortunately, the pair had a hard time pushing further down and couldn’t make a significant break below .9150. In the end, I was able to bag 25 pips, which isn’t bad but is still short of what I was hoping to take home. Still, it’s better than nothing!

See y’all on the other side of the weekend!

Total P/L: +25 pips / +0.33%

Trade Update: 2010-08-04 21:35

Yipee! After two days of waiting, my short AUDUSD trade finally got triggered. Better-than-expected data from Australia, namely the trade balance and house price index, provided support for the Aussie yesterday. I’m crossing my fingers that the price heads down in the next few days since I plan to hold on to my trade until the release of the RBA monetary policy statement on Friday 1:30 am GMT. Wish me luck!

Trade Idea: 2010-08-02 5:31

PoD Chart

Looking at the charts, I noticed that there’s a nice rising wedge formation, which is often considered a bearish pattern. With the stochastics in the overbought region in both the daily and the 4-hour charts, I’m inclined to think that Aussie bears are just raring to pounce. The top of the wedge could act as resistance for the pair so I set my entry order in that area.

The bottom of the wedge looks like a good area to lock in some profits but I’ll also be going for the break of the wedge and set another profit target at the support at .8900.

Aside from that, there’s also support turned resistance right around the psychological .9200 handle. To give my trade enough breathing room, I decided to set my stop 50 pips above that level.

I whipped out my economic calendar today and guess what I saw? There’s a whole mess of reports coming our way from Australia tomorrow! You know what that means… Plenty of opportunities! Yippeee!

Early tomorrow morning, Australia is set to release some high-impact reports that are expected to show improvements from their previous readings. Retail trade is projected to grow by 0.4% in June, following the 0.2% increase in retail sales in May, just as building approvals are expected to improve from showing a 6.6% decline in May to growing 2% in June.

With this in mind, I decided to give AUDUSD a bit of room to breathe and rise before I get in on the action.

When the RBA makes its interest rate decision after the release of the economic reports, I think AUDUSD will finally begin its course down. That’s when I’ll strike! I feel it’s highly unlikely that the RBA will raise interest rates with such low inflationary pressures in Australia. Who knows, they might even throw in a couple of dovish comments here and there and really sink the Aussie!

It’ll be just like taking candy from a baby… I hope!

Anyway, here’s what I’m cooking up:

Short AUDUSD at .9175, stop loss at .9250, pt1 at .9000, pt2 at .8900

Wish me luck and don’t forget to hit me up on MeetPips.com!

4 comments

  1. foricks

    I still see this wedge plain as the jelly-doughnut stain on my tie. From a technical perspective, it should drop, but the fundamentals (namely commodities) seem to be keeping this one between the ditches. Any comments, doll?

    Reply
  2. foricks

    I still see this wedge plain as the jelly-doughnut stain on my tie. From a technical perspective, it should drop, but the fundamentals (namely commodities) seem to be keeping this one between the ditches. Any comments, doll?

    Reply
  3. Happy Piphappypip

    Hey foricks! Judging from Australia’s recent economic figures, it looks like their economy is feeling the brunt of the RBA’s aggressive tightening measures. Home purchases are down, consumer spending is weak, and business confidence is low. It doesn’t help that the data from China, Australia’s largest trade partner, also fell short of expectations. I guess that explains the huge drop from the 0.9150 area to 0.9020. It’s just too bad that I didn’t hold on to this trade long enough!

    Reply
  4. Happy Piphappypip

    Hey foricks! Judging from Australia’s recent economic figures, it looks like their economy is feeling the brunt of the RBA’s aggressive tightening measures. Home purchases are down, consumer spending is weak, and business confidence is low. It doesn’t help that the data from China, Australia’s largest trade partner, also fell short of expectations. I guess that explains the huge drop from the 0.9150 area to 0.9020. It’s just too bad that I didn’t hold on to this trade long enough!

    Reply

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