We’re down to our last trade reviews of the year! Here are my trading stats for Q4 2012 and a few lessons that I learned along the way:
I have to admit, Q4 isn’t exactly my top trading quarter as I had fewer trade ideas and even fewer triggered positions. Check out my trades and see for yourself:
|DATE||TRADE IDEA||P/L in pips||P/L in %|
|Oct.11||Strong Aussie Jobs Data to Boost AUD/USD?|
|Oct.18||Simple Range Play on USD/CAD|
|Oct.23||3 Bullish Signals on AUD/USD|
|Nov.08||Swing Trade: AUD/USD’s Uptrend|
|Nov.22||Long USD/CAD: Will the Channel Hold?|
|Nov.29||USD/CAD’s Break and Retest Setup|
|Dec.12||Catching AUD/USD’s Rally|
No. of Trade Ideas: 7
Trades Triggered: 4
No. of Wins: 2
No. of Losses: 2
No. of Break Even Trades: 0
Win %: 50%
Average Gain Per Winning Trade: 60 pips / 0.41%
Average Loss Per Losing Trade: 33 pips / 0.50%
What bugs me is that I could have taken advantage of the strong price action and relatively one-directional movement of the comdoll pairs this quarter. Oh, if only I wasn’t too attached to fundamental analysis at the time! I probably could’ve seen that risk sentiment and U.S. Fiscal Cliff concerns would be enough to drive high-yielding currencies higher by multi-hundred pip highs.
But hindsight is always 20/20. Looking forward, I was able to spot some of the mistakes I made and come up with the following resolutions for 2013:
1.Adjust position sizes accordingly.
Throughout the quarter, I always risked my usual 0.5% on every single trade, regardless of whether it was a swing trade or short-term setup. In the past, I’ve noticed that I tend to do better on longer-term trades so I should probably risk more on those next time. On top of that, I will consider adjusting my risk per trade depending on how confident I am with the setup.
2.Don’t dwell too much on reward-to-risk.
Okay, I’ll admit it. There were times that I set my stops too tight just to make sure I get a pretty good reward-to-risk ratio, sometimes to the point of sacrificing some of my technical analysis. While I’ll still continue to consider R:R whenever I take trades, I’ll have to remind myself that I shouldn’t compromise my initial analysis just to get a better ratio. If I find a setup that doesn’t have a decent R:R, I’ll just move on to a different one instead.
3.Avoid tunnel vision.
As I reviewed my recent trades, I noticed that I’ve gotten stuck trading just one comdoll pair for consecutive weeks even if I do switch sides. Could it be that I’m being stubborn, trying to prove that I can eventually profit off a single comdoll pair? From now on, I will try to broaden my vision and look at all potential trades on all comdoll pairs before actually choosing which one to trade.
Another change I can implement is to start looking at non-dollar pairs which still involve the commodity currencies. The reason is that sometimes the U.S. dollar is just too jumpy and tough to predict that I might have a better chance at profiting if I trade other pairs instead.
4. Go on an adventure!
I heard that my homegirl Huck made a resolution to find a boyfriend this coming year and I must admit that I thought of doing the same. However, I don’t think I’m ready for that just yet and I would rather enjoy my singlehood by going on an adventure first.
This may not seem trading-related at first but I remembered Dr. Pipslow’s article on how taking a quick break from trading could help clear one’s head. I was thinking of visiting an exotic place like Thailand or going on a beach trip in Maldives. Do you guys have any suggestions?
That’s all I got for now, ladies and gents. Please stay tuned in January as I plan to start the year with in-depth analysis of what happened to the comdolls in 2012. For now, enjoy Forex Gump’s awesome currency reviews!
I hope you have a wonderful holidays and a happy 2013!
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