NZD/USD: Will the Rising Channel Hold? – All Positions Closed

Trade Closed: 2012-03-06 1:59

Eep, I should’ve gone with my instincts last week!

If you’ve been keeping tabs on my trade, you’ll know that I kept my second position open and placed its stop loss at break even after NZD/USD hit my first profit target. After all, there was a chance at the time that a favorable decision by the ISDA panel would boost high-yielding currencies.

NZD/USD Trade Closed

Unfortunately, many traders decided to take profit to avoid weekend event risks. Also, a few investors didn’t like it that New Zealand printed a weaker-than-expected ANZ commodity prices report. Heck, NZD/USD completely invalidated the rising channel that we spotted!

Here’s how my trade turned out:
P/L: +70 pips on my first position and +0 pips on my second position (break-even), for an average of 35 pips that amounted to +0.25% on my account!

A 0.25% gain isn’t half bad, I think. Hey, at least I gained a few pips from my first position! Not only that, I was also able to appreciate the importance of marking and closely watching important comdoll levels. The .8400 major level we identified last week helped me place my profit target, while the resistance at the week open (WO) clued me in that I should probably move my stop to break-even.

Will I keep my winning streak this week? A lot of my Twitter and Facebook friends have been sharing their setups with me, but don’t be shy if you want to share them here, okay? Any suggestion or opinion on my trades will be much appreciated!

First PT Hit!: 2012-03-02 | 02:36:00
Yipee! It looks like I could extend my winning streak to FOUR trades in a row as I pocketed some of my gains from this NZD/USD trade. As some of you pointed out in the comments below, I may have entered too early and missed out on a few pips, but I’m pretty happy with catching a part of the bounce.

NZD/USD Trade Update

Luckily for me, NZD/USD jumped back to the middle of the channel I drew and hit my first PT at .8400. Whee!

While the rally seems to be losing some momentum, I’m starting to think that I should close all my positions right now and exit my trade before the week comes to a close.

With the fate of Greece still in the hands of the ISDA panel, I’m a bit worried that we could see huge gaps over the weekend. Plus, I did promise in my trading resolutions that I wouldn’t hold on to short-term trades over the weekend, right?

So do you think I should exit this trade completely or wait a little longer for a better price? I’d love to hear what you think!

Trade Idea: 2012-03-01 | 06:06:34
Happy first day of the month, friends!

After closing my third consecutive winning trade early this week, I’m hoping to extend my luck and win another one with this NZD/USD setup.

The pair has been on a nice rising channel for a few days now, and I think that it’s about to hit support around the .8330-.8340 area. Not only that, I’m also seeing a potential bullish divergence and oversold stochastic signal waiting to support a long trade.

NZD/USD Rising Channel

On the fundamental side of my trade, I’m betting my pips that Kiwi will pare its losses against the dollar for the rest of the week. After all, NZD is currently the strongest performing major currency against the Greenback.

Even New Zealand’s economic reports are painting a better picture than Australia and Canada this week. Except for the slip in the trade balance report on Monday, you’ll see that New Zealand printed a much-better-than-expected building consents, business confidence, and overseas trade index results.

With those in mind, here’s my trading plan:

I entered at .8330 a couple of hours ago when a doji on the 4-hour chart signaled a possible reversal. I put my stop loss just below .8300 since the rising channel would be invalidated at that area.

My first PT is set at .8400, and I also have a profit target at the top of the channel at .8450. Lastly, I’m only risking 0.50% on this trade since I plan to close all positions by the end of the week.

So what do you think? Will NZD/USD reach my profit targets this week? Or should I adjust my trade plan? Any advice would be much appreciated!

Happy time

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10 comments

  1. Granticus_Maximus

    So far it’s looking good! It hit just a little over PT1 at .84. I’m looking at the chart now and it looks like you entered at the perfect position! Nice one! :D …It’s at 8.38 right now, let’s see if it’ll keep going to hit your PT2.

    Reply
    • Happy Piphappypip Post author

      Yep, I just locked in half my winnings and adjusted my stop to my entry price. Update comin’ right up! Wheee! :)

      Reply
    • Happy Piphappypip Post author

      Hmm, it looks like the rally is slowing down now. Maybe wait for a pullback if you plan to jump in? Do you think it could still head higher though? 

      Reply
  2. Foricks

    Might be a little premature on this one, Hap.  Could be a little pullback after gold drop yesterday. 

    Reply
    • Happy Piphappypip Post author

      Yeah I think I entered a bit too early… missed the actual bottom by 15 pips! But it’s just a short-term trade and I’m hoping to catch a small bounce. If gold prices continue to slide, I might jump out of this one. Thanks for the feedback, as always! :)

      Reply
  3. obie

    I think you should follow your trading plan and close out the position before the weekend. “Plus, I did promise in my trading resolutions that I wouldn’t hold on to short-term trades over the weekend” Price may have trouble closing above the .84 area. Well done, awesome trading, I enjoy reading your blog…. (and the others as well, lol)

    Reply
    • Happy Piphappypip Post author

      Good advice. Unfortunately, before I could even exit, price hit my adjusted stop already. Oh well, no harm done. I was able to lock in some profits anyway. Thanks for reading my blog! :)

      Reply

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