NZD/USD: Shorting at a Range Top – What a Heartbreak!

Trade Update: 2013-02-15 3:28

So much for not getting my heart broken on Valentine’s Day! Just when I thought NZD/USD was headed my way after it dipped to .8460, the pair zoomed right back up as the quarterly retail sales report beat expectations.

As it turns out, consumer spending jumped by 2.1% in the last quarter of 2012, surprising many market watchers including myself. The core version posted a 1.5% increase for the period while the previous quarter’s figure enjoyed an upward revision.

NZD/USD Trade Update

The strong report eventually triggered a strong upside breakout above the .8450 resistance zone and even beyond the .8500 major psychological level. The Kiwi surged to its 5-year high against the Greenback, eventually hitting my stop at .8525.

Here’s the damage:

P/L: -55 pips/-0.50%

Just as in love, I do know that there were risks involved. Unfortunately for me, I got hurt in the end. Here’s to being able to move on and bounce back someday though!

I hope you guys had a better Heart’s Day than I did! How did your Valentine’s Day turn out?

Trade Idea: 2013-02-14 2:40

Have you ever felt so good about spotting a setup that you just want to stick to your screen and cheer it on? Well, that’s how I feel about NZD/USD’s long-term range!

If we look at the 1-hour chart we’ll see that the .8465 area has been holding as a solid range resistance since December last year. Not only that, but right now I’m also seeing a bearish divergence forming! Good thing that New Zealand’s Finance Minister gave me the opportunity to jump in.

NZD/USD .8500 Resistance

A few hours ago he stated that they aren’t interested in participating in a currency war. This inspired a mild Kiwi rally, enough to test the range resistance. See, this is why I like trading better than dating. Waiting for a good comdoll setup to materialize takes much less time and effort than looking for a great guy. I’m pretty sure other female traders could relate, too. But I digress.

As optimistic as the New Zealand officials are, I don’t think there are any game-changing factors for the Kiwi. I mean, we can’t deny that its recent reports have been printing to the downside. In fact, its retail sales data out in a couple of hours is expected to print lower after we saw a significant drop in employment during the same period.

Here’s my plan for this trade:

Shorted at .8470 with a 55-pip stop loss at .8525. My original profit target is at the bottom of the range (.8300) but I can always adjust my stop loss depending on the Kiwi’s outlook. Read the risk disclosure if you’re planning to join me!

What do you think? Will I get my heart broken by this one or not?

Happy Hearts’ Day, everyone!

Happy time

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22 comments

  1. irfan hashim

    i dont things so this can be done this week as a retail saleq/q NZD expected to be very good.. then last may drag the .84 till next week.

    Reply
      • irfan hashim

        HERE IS MY PLAN.. I HAVE TAKEN MY FIRST PROFIT AND GONNA GIVE A LITTLE SCALPER AND THEN THIS BABY WILL GO TOO DOWN….. 30PIPS DONE AND WAITING FOR 20 MORE FORE LOSS OF 55PIPD:-)

        Reply

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