Keep Rangin’, Loonie! – Trade Cancelled

Trade Cancelled: 2010-09-06 2:05

PoD Chart

Bah! My trade didn’t get triggered since USDCAD didn’t climb high enough to reach my short order at 1.0670. I really should’ve placed my original order at 1.0670 instead of 1.0750 but I guess I was being extra careful at that time. Hey, at least I didn’t chalk up another loss on this one!

What bugs me is that I could’ve hit my first profit target already had I shorted at 1.0670 last week. After the NFP report revealed that joblessness in the US was not as bad as expected, the US dollar sold off while the commodity currencies rallied. Because of that, USDCAD fell back to 1.0500 and broke down later on.

Oh well, at least my trade idea wasn’t completely off this time. Here’s to being a little more confident with my ideas this week! Good luck trading everyone!

Trade Adjustment: 2010-09-02 22:05

Yikes! It looks like resistance at 1.0670 held as USDCAD tumbled to 1.0500 after bumping that ceiling. Meh, I should’ve just shorted there but I guess I’m being extra careful lately. The pair still looks like it’s ranging and it might be better to adjust my trade a bit.

Support at 1.0500 is still holding and the pair seems to be edging back towards the 1.0670 resistance. Price movement is expected to be slow ahead of the upcoming NFP report but we might see some wild moves later on. In his article yesterday, Forex Gump mentioned that the initial knee-jerk reaction to the report usually reverses and I’m crossing my fingers that USDCAD zooms up to 1.0670 first then slides back down.

Here’s my adjusted trade idea:

Short USDCAD at 1.0670, stop loss at 1.0770, pt1 at 1.0500, pt2 at 1.0275. I’ll move my stop to breakeven if my first profit target gets hit. Wish me luck!

Trade Idea: 2010-08-31 4:55:06

PoD Chart

Is it time for the Loonie to shine under the spotlight? After the beating it took from the Greenback yesterday, I sure hope so!

Pip Diddy mentioned that a bunch of top-tier economic events are in store this week so there’d definitely be plenty of catalysts for some USDCAD action!

The latest economic reports from Canada might have let down the Loonie bulls like a cold soup in winter, but I have a really good feeling about this upcoming one! Canada’s GDP is set for release today at 12:30 pm GMT. After exceeding expectations with a 0.1% growth last May, my forex buddies are predicting a 0.2% rise this time. I’m keeping my fingers crossed!

I’m also watching out for the US data today, since only the CB consumer confidence report is pegged for a positive result. House prices are expected to decline, while Chicago manufacturing PMI is also set for a fall.

What’s more, my forex buds also said that FOMC member James Bullard’s speech today will echo Bernanke’s concerns last Friday. Will these be enough to restore the pip-love for the Loonie? Besides, if the FOMC minutes reveal that the policymakers are more inclined towards implementing further easing measures, the Greenback might be in for some serious dumpin’!

Looking at the daily chart, I noticed that there’s resistance right around the 1.0750 area. I’ve got a hunch that, with all the catalysts on today’s deck, USDCAD could summon enough volatility to reach that level. I placed a short order there with a stop around this year’s high of 1.0854.

Then, I placed one profit target at 1.0650, giving me a nice 1:1 risk-reward ratio on my first position. I placed another profit target at 1.0500, which is this week’s open price.

Here’s what I’m cookin’ up:

Short USDCAD at 1.0750, stop loss at 1.0850, pt1 at 1.0650, pt2 at 1.0500.

So I know my last few trades haven’t exactly worked out but I’m still hopeful that this will be the trade that’ll erase some of my recent losses. Wish me luck folks!

  • willariza

    Mmm.I might be wrong,but everything tells me you are gonna have to wait more than a week to get that quote.

  • willariza

    Mmm.I might be wrong,but everything tells me you are gonna have to wait more than a week to get that quote.

  • happypip

    It looks like you’re right, willariza. I might have been too careful in setting that trade order, probably because I got burned in my past few trades. I should’ve just shorted around the nearer resistance at 1.0670. I made a few adjustments now, hopefully it works out!

  • willariza

    That was a pity,Happypip! In my country we have a saying that goes like this: “Who got burnt with milk,sees a cow and cry”. It’s happening to me with USD/CHF, I really can not trust any setup anymore with that pair. USD/CHF it’s the new USD/JPY

  • happypip

    It looks like you’re right, willariza. I might have been too careful in setting that trade order, probably because I got burned in my past few trades. I should’ve just shorted around the nearer resistance at 1.0670. I made a few adjustments now, hopefully it works out!

  • willariza

    That was a pity,Happypip! In my country we have a saying that goes like this: “Who got burnt with milk,sees a cow and cry”. It’s happening to me with USD/CHF, I really can not trust any setup anymore with that pair. USD/CHF it’s the new USD/JPY