Trade Closed: 2009-10-08 01:25
Good evening! Things were looking good for my trade as the pair met resistance and consolidated around .8900. Unfortunately, Australian jobs surprised to the upside with an increase of 40.6K jobs versus the forecasted decline of 10K jobs. The jobless rate also ticked lower from 5.8% to 5.7%.
Needless to say, this was very positive for the Aussie and the pair jumped above .9000 soon after the report was released. I was stopped out at that level for a small loss on the day.
Total: -100 pips/ -0.50% loss
My mistake on this trade was thinking that we would see job losses like in the US, but apparently things are going really, really well in Australia. No worries though as I know going against the grain was a bit riskier, which is why I reduced my normal position size.
Well, it looks like there’s no stopping the Aussie from pushing higher from this point on. Of course, if the Aussie goes too high in value, it may hinder exports, but that may not come any time soon.
So, no luck on the counter trend trade, and for now I will be looking for dips to buy into the the Aussie rally. Stay tuned!
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Trade Idea: 2009-10-07 01:08
Good evening everyone! It’s been quite a day for the Aussie and today’s rally after interest rate hike has brought a counter trend, technical trade setup to my attention. Time for a pull back after the strong moves?
This is a simple technical setup on the 4-hour chart and using a mix of trendlines and anoscillator to indicate AUDUSD may have a swing lower. Today’s rally has brought AUDUSD up to the rising trendline drawn on the chart where the pair has met resistance and reverse in previous encounters. Stochastics are indicating the pair may be short term overbought and that we may see a swing lower. I used the Fibonacci retracement tool on the current rally to show points of possible support and profit taking area.
Because this is a counter trend trade, I will reduce my position size to risk only 0.50% of my account on this trade. My stop will be above the rising trendline at the next major psychologically significant round number of .9000 and I will target the potential support area around the 38% Fibonacci retracement level. Here’s what I am going to do:
Short AUDUSD at market (.8900), stop at .9000, pt at .8800
If the pair does reach .8800 I will definitely look to go long after I take profits. Stay tuned!