GBP/AUD Potential Pullback

Hey folks! I’m trying my hand at currency crosses again with this retracement setup on GBP/AUD. Y’all know how I dig break-and-retest scenarios, right?

This pair has just broken below a major support level and area of interest around 1.8300 and might be ready for a pullback, especially since that area lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Stochastic is still making its way towards the overbought region though so I might wait for it to cross down before hopping in.

gbpaud

As for fundies, recent economic data from the U.K. hint at some weak spots, which was probably why the pound caved to risk aversion in the past few days. Aside from that, I think the rise in gold prices could be enough to support the Australian dollar for now. I’ll keep tabs on the upcoming data, such as the U.K. CPI and Australian jobs data, to see if my biases are correct though!

If I’m able to short around 1.8300, I’ll set my stop above the 61.8% Fib level and aim for the recent lows close to the 1.8000 major psychological handle. Do you think this trade idea could work out?

Happy time

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  • darthfrancis

    I think you have a goof setup, one i will take if I see strong bearish PA to support the idea.

    Good luck

    Darth

    • Happy Pip

      Thanks for the feedback! I’m liking the technicals but waiting for confirmation on fundamentals. UK CPI came in weak, which supports a short, but I’m gonna wait until the Australian jobs report is released. Are you trading this?

  • parsifal

    Thank you Fibonacci and Ribakov !
    3 Trades :
    1. short at 1.8585 (Jan 2nd) – closed at 1.8287 (Jan 3rd)
    2. short at 1.8541 (Jan 9th) – closed at 1.8262 (Jan 13th)
    3. long at 1.8062 (Jan 13th)- closed at 1.8266 (Jan 14th)
    298 + 279 + 204 : 781 pips in total !
    GBP/AUD;GBP/CAD and GBP/NZD are my favorite pairs too….
    Sorry, don´t know how to place a chart here (or if it´s possible)
    Good Luck with your Set-Up, Happy-Pip, wish you all the Best !

    Kind Regards

    parsifal

    • Happy Pip

      Thanks for checking out my blog and for sharing your trade ideas! I see you’ve already locked in a bunch of pips on this pair. What’s your bias this time?

  • Josef Auzinger

    Hi Happy Pip, my Bias for GBP/AUD ist still long, I´ve closed my last trade way to early, but doesn´t matter, I also thought for a moment your short trade set-up could work.
    BUT: After checking the Currency-Index-Tool at the “forexpeacearmy-site (honestly hope it´s allowed to write this) I´ve changed my mind, GBP/AUD is right now the strongest rising pair on an hourly AND daily time-frame.
    See for yourself !
    with kind regards
    parsifal

    • Josef Auzinger

      P.S.: GBP/NZD is also going up heavily, 17 hours ago I´ve seen a bullish Divergence on the 1 hr chart and went long at 1.9545, TP I set at 1.9700 and 1.9880

      • Josef Auzinger

        closed manuelly half of my position (and moving SL to BE) to be on the safe side….

        • Josef Auzinger

          One last topic: The Aussie is loosing ground against all others

          • Happy Pip

            And I think it’s about to lose further ground, thanks to the weak Australian jobs release. Are you still long? What levels are you aiming for?

    • Happy Pip

      Good call! I’ll check that Currency Index Tool out myself. Thanks for sharing your thoughts!

      • Josef Auzinger

        You´re welcome ! GB has the strongest European Economy and during 2014 many analysts expect a much stronger Pound, also against the Euro,because ECB plans some kind of QE: Kind regards: parsifal

        • Happy Pip

          Interesting! Thanks so much for sharing this.

  • Pingback: AUD/JPY: Playing the Australian Jobs Release | Forex Blog: Playing with Comdolls()

  • Josef Auzinger

    Good Morning, Happy Pip, sorry missed your post from 1. 15:
    Yes, I had entered another long trade on GBP/AUD at 1.8375, took off half of the profit at 1.8550 and let the rest run up to 1.8700. A pending buy-order is waiting to get filled at 1.8750, but for now I expect some retracement, will certainly not open any short position again, bias is still long !
    Kind regards
    parsifal

    • Josef Auzinger

      P.S.: It´s 5.30 AM where I´m living right now (in Vienna), just waking up….