Quick Forex Performance Review: Hits and Misses

Hey, comdoll buddies! I’ve decided to do a quick review of my recent forex trades to figure out how to improve my performance. By the looks of it, I had actually been able to catch a bunch of good entries and get the direction right, but I’ve had trouble staying with large trends.

Here are some of the forex setups I’ve taken lately:

GBP/CAD Bullish Pennant (July 21)

For this setup, I decided to hop in a long position at 2.0200 during the test of the rising trend line visible on the pair’s 4-hour forex time frame. Since the U.K. had a bunch of top-tier events lined up for the Super Thursday back then, I thought it best to adjust my stop higher to 2.0480 to lock in some profits. This stop was hit when price sold off on the lack of BOE hawkishness, resulting to a 280-pip gain or +0.13% in profits.

USD/CAD Uptrend (Aug 12)

I also hopped in an ascending trend line test for this one, but I opted to set a much wider stop since the U.S. July NFP report turned out to be a disappointment. I was able to enter at market (1.3135) and price eventually moved in my favor before I exited early (1.3165) to avoid weekend risk. Since I risked only a small portion of my account, I just scraped a meager 0.02% gain for 30 pips.

EUR/NZD Resistance Turned Support (Aug 18)

This EUR/NZD long position (1.6756 and 1.6825) was based on a textbook retracement setup, which featured an area of interest lining up with a Fib and a bullish divergence to boot. This actually went according to plan, but seeing the pair’s skyrocketing price rally of more than a thousand pips left me a bit bummed out that I bagged only an average of 225 pips amounting to a 0.52% gain.

GBP/CAD Trend Line Bounce (Aug 31)

I thought I could be able to hop in another simple retracement play on GBP/CAD at 2.0600, as it also showed a pullback to the Fibs coinciding with a former resistance area. Unfortunately, the Fibs gave way when OPEC showed willingness to cooperate in terms of adjusting oil supply and prices, causing the pair to hit my stop below 2.0200 for a 400-pip loss and a 0.5% dent on my account. In retrospect, I realized that I seem to have entered too early and that I should’ve been more patient in waiting for a correction on the longer-term uptrend.

AUD/CAD Triangle Pullback (Sept 3)

Lastly, I had been watching this AUD/CAD triangle for quite some time now (As early as January, come to think of it!) yet I missed the break below support. Heck, I remember shorting at .9900 a few months back and now price is trading below .9300! I did try to catch the pullback but I was too conservative with my entry. After that, I still missed the chance to short on the follow-through since I was playing it careful ahead of the BOC decision.

Forex Lessons Learned

I know there’s no use crying over spilled milk but I can’t help but think of the potential profits I could’ve had if I played these trades a little better. I’ve been able to pinpoint the right trends mostly based on fundamentals and catch decent entry levels, but somehow I’ve been unable to press my advantage.

For instance, had I stayed in my EUR/NZD long trade with a remainder of my initial position, I could’ve been up by an additional 800 pips by now. And for USD/CAD, I could’ve scored much more than a measly 0.02% win even with a wide stop since the pair is past the 1.3250 area already.

My takeaway from all this is that I think I can afford to be a little more aggressive when it comes to hopping in strong trends and sticking with them. I guess just have to be a little more creative when it comes to reducing my risk ahead of top-tier events instead of simply closing a trade completely, allowing a small position to stay open in case price keeps moving in my favor. Got anything else you think I should work on?