Q3 2016 Forex Trade Performance Review

I’m hoping to finish 2016 strong with a solid performance this quarter. But before I can do that, I think it’s best to review how my trading fared for the past three months first. Here’s a recap of my Q3 trades and the lessons I’ve learned.

Forex Trading Performance

DATE TRADE IDEA P/L in pips P/L in %
July 4 Reversal Pattern on AUD/USD? Not taken Not taken
July 8 USD/CAD Triangle Breakout +160 +0.32
July 11 NZD/JPY Long-Term Uptrend +50 +0.07
July 19 AUD/USD Ascending Trend Line -75 -0.11
Aug 2 AUD/NZD Area of Interest -250 -0.21
Aug 9 USD/CAD Aiming for Channel Resistance? -210 -0.25
Aug 15 AUD/USD Channel Retracement Canceled Canceled
Aug 29 AUD/USD Break and Pullback Canceled Canceled
Sept 6 AUD/USD Channel Breakout +35 +0.13
Sept 14 Watching GBP/CAD for the BOE Decision -37.5 -0.02

No. of Forex Trade Ideas:  10
Trades Triggered: 7
No. of Wins: 3
No. of Losses: 4
No. of Break Even Trades: 0
Win %: 43%
Average Gain Per Winning Trade: +0.17%
Average Loss Per Losing Trade: –0.14%

Total P/L: -327.5 pips / -0.07%

Ugh, I needed a warm mug of pumpkin spice latte to cheer myself up after crunching these numbers. My win rate is below 50%, my pip count is looking terrible, and I ended up with a total loss for the period! On a less downbeat note, I managed to keep my average gain per winning trade slightly above my average loss, and my P/L % isn’t all that bad.

Just as in the previous quarters, I was off to a good start with a couple of wins in the bag but this was followed by a three-trade losing streak that shattered my confidence. I played it extra carefully in the weeks that followed, canceling orders on any signs of a fundamental shift that could work against my setups and booking profits very quickly.

As in Q2, I was still having a difficult time navigating the markets on short-term changes in market sentiment and major themes. I seem to have gotten my bearings towards the end of the quarter as my biases were spot on, especially with the recurring Brexit theme and changes in the RBA’s tone, but my trade management was still pretty shaky.

I’ve been trying to build on the lessons I’ve learned in earlier quarters, such as taking the currency pair’s volatility into account when setting stops and putting a little more faith in my analysis. So far it appears to have worked out well with my big win on NZD/USD early this quarter, but I’m hoping that I can be able to sustain this positive performance until the end of the year.

Got any tips on how I could improve my performance? As always, I love getting your feedback on my trading decisions. 

Cheers!

Happy

See also: Q2 2016 Trading Performance Review

  • Mark Dave Fercol

    Thanks for sharing this. I also have a rough quarter. I am still a newbie, but I would like to thank you for all your posts. I learned a lot! Keep it up!

    • Aww, thanks for the kind words! And I’m glad to know you’re learning from my trades and even my mistakes. Hopefully we can bounce back this Q4!

  • Tlove Hewitt

    Scalp and trade shorter term grab 15-20 Pips per trade

    • Thanks for sharing your thoughts! I’m trying to go for shorter-term trades these days so I can book profits quicker. See you around!

      • Tlove Hewitt

        Do you have any thoughts on what your view on Gold is?

  • officezombie

    First, sorry for the long post. It grew in the telling.

    Do you have a formalized set of rules that you use to trade? I’m wondering if there is a way to make your trading system more mechanical. It looks like you make longer-term trades on the D1 time-frame but you are setting your stops, in my opinion, as though you were trading on H4 or even H1.

    Take your AUDNZD trade for example. You had a fundamental reason for believing the trade was going lower. You correctly gauged the overall movement of the currency, as it ended up bottoming near 1.0241.

    It was not a bad analysis although in hindsight that long drop from 1.12 was (probably) the market’s reaction to the expected rate cut. It was already priced in, and the previous rally at the end of July was uncertainty about what the final decision would be. For me this trade would have been more interesting if I thought the Aussie had a long-term poor future for some reason – like maybe gold was plunging, or if the interest rate decision had been unexpected.

    You entered right on what ended up being a pin bar, (bad luck) and then after the first day of the trade, price jumped, engulfing the previous day or two. That was clearly a reversal. Even though RSI isn’t the best for determining them, it is clearly showing the trade was oversold.

    Ok, but forget about all that, that’s just the entry. The least important part of trading. Now you could have chosen to exit, because your system says, ‘get out at reversals’ or you could stay in because your system says ‘trade with the W1 timeframe’. If you are a longer-term trader, you would have stayed in and rode out the brief rally, and the next (current) one, and I’m 75% sure the AUDNZD will drop down below 1.02 before it goes back to 1.14.

    I’m not that patient. If you aren’t either, then just get out (and reverse trade) at reversals, and trade on the H4. Place your stops at a point that leaves no doubt the trend has reversed, so that means, well outside the 3rd standard deviation band, or 2x the ATR or whatever you use to gauge. Some people like to use the 200 SMA and just buy when price is above it, and sell when it’s below.

    If you hadn’t guessed I’m more of a technical than fundamental trader, as I believe most retail traders don’t have access to good fundamental data, just misleading calendar announcements, and old news.

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