I’m hoping to finish 2016 strong with a solid performance this quarter. But before I can do that, I think it’s best to review how my trading fared for the past three months first. Here’s a recap of my Q3 trades and the lessons I’ve learned.
Forex Trading Performance
|DATE||TRADE IDEA||P/L in pips||P/L in %|
|July 4||Reversal Pattern on AUD/USD?||Not taken||Not taken|
|July 8||USD/CAD Triangle Breakout||+160||+0.32|
|July 11||NZD/JPY Long-Term Uptrend||+50||+0.07|
|July 19||AUD/USD Ascending Trend Line||-75||-0.11|
|Aug 2||AUD/NZD Area of Interest||-250||-0.21|
|Aug 9||USD/CAD Aiming for Channel Resistance?||-210||-0.25|
|Aug 15||AUD/USD Channel Retracement||Canceled||Canceled|
|Aug 29||AUD/USD Break and Pullback||Canceled||Canceled|
|Sept 6||AUD/USD Channel Breakout||+35||+0.13|
|Sept 14||Watching GBP/CAD for the BOE Decision||-37.5||-0.02|
No. of Forex Trade Ideas: 10
Trades Triggered: 7
No. of Wins: 3
No. of Losses: 4
No. of Break Even Trades: 0
Win %: 43%
Average Gain Per Winning Trade: +0.17%
Average Loss Per Losing Trade: –0.14%
Total P/L: -327.5 pips / -0.07%
Ugh, I needed a warm mug of pumpkin spice latte to cheer myself up after crunching these numbers. My win rate is below 50%, my pip count is looking terrible, and I ended up with a total loss for the period! On a less downbeat note, I managed to keep my average gain per winning trade slightly above my average loss, and my P/L % isn’t all that bad.
Just as in the previous quarters, I was off to a good start with a couple of wins in the bag but this was followed by a three-trade losing streak that shattered my confidence. I played it extra carefully in the weeks that followed, canceling orders on any signs of a fundamental shift that could work against my setups and booking profits very quickly.
As in Q2, I was still having a difficult time navigating the markets on short-term changes in market sentiment and major themes. I seem to have gotten my bearings towards the end of the quarter as my biases were spot on, especially with the recurring Brexit theme and changes in the RBA’s tone, but my trade management was still pretty shaky.
I’ve been trying to build on the lessons I’ve learned in earlier quarters, such as taking the currency pair’s volatility into account when setting stops and putting a little more faith in my analysis. So far it appears to have worked out well with my big win on NZD/USD early this quarter, but I’m hoping that I can be able to sustain this positive performance until the end of the year.
Got any tips on how I could improve my performance? As always, I love getting your feedback on my trading decisions.
See also: Q2 2016 Trading Performance Review