Forex Trade Review: GBP/CAD Trend Line Bounce

So much for a simple trend retracement setup… These Fibs failed me! Here’s the damage from my long GBP/CAD forex position. Oh, if you’re wondering what I’m talking about, make sure you check out my initial trade idea right here.

The odds weren’t ever in my favor this time, as crude oil staged a three-day rally last week and gave the Canadian dollar a huge boost. Not even the stronger-than-expected preliminary business investment data from the U.K., which indicated a 2.9% jump versus the estimated 1.6% gain for Q2, was enough to keep GBP/CAD afloat.

GBP/CAD 1-hour Forex Chart

GBP/CAD 1-hour Forex Chart

As you can see from the GBP/CAD forex chart above, I was able to go long around the 2.0600 major psychological mark near the 50% Fib and a former resistance level. I set a wide stop below the swing low at 2.0200, but this was still triggered during the pair’s sharp tumble around the end of the week.

Looking back, I probably should’ve tried to cut my losses early when the pair already broke below the 61.8% Fib. However, wishful thinking got the best of me when I crossed my fingers that the support around the 2.0200 handle would still hold and allow GBP/CAD to bounce back above my entry area. Apparently not.

With that, I’m looking at a 400-pip loss and a 0.5% dent on my trading account. Got any suggestions on how I can bounce back this week? Let’s hear ’em!

Cheers,

Happy time

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  • jean

    it was a promising trade I took it along with you but the crude oil bounce came out of no where, I m going short gdpusd on a correction to 1.54ish for a move to 1.4950. and a short nzdusd 0.6371 to 1st target 0.62ish and second .60ish

    • Ha, yes! I really didn’t expect that news from OPEC since they’ve been insisting on maintaining production for the past few months even with the slump in prices. I’m looking at that setup on NZDUSD as well!

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  • Oh yeah, now I see it on the 4-hour chart. Yep, hindsight is indeed 20-20. Do you think fundamentals support a long or short bias? Kinda confused about oil prices these days…