It’s kind of a mixed bag for me these days, as one of my forex positions is raking in gains while the other isn’t looking too good. Here are some updates on my AUD/USD and GBP/CAD trades.
I had a brief scare on this one, as price pulled up much higher than my entry at .7100 and moved past the 61.8% Fib that I drew. As it turns out, the pair just wanted to make an actual retest of the broken triangle support closer to the .7200 mark before resuming its drop.
I did note in my Comdoll Trading Kit that AUD/USD has been moving inside a short-term rising channel but it looks like price already broke below support. With that, I’m thinking that bearish momentum could pick up, especially if risk aversion stays in the forex market this week.
I’m also considering trailing my stop just below entry, probably when price makes a strong break below the .7000 major psychological support, putting it on track to make it all the way down to my PT at .6850. That way I can lock in a few pips even if market sentiment suddenly shifts again.
So far I’ve got a 70-pip lead or a 0.17% gain on my account since I risked 0.5% on this position. I’m crossing my fingers that this pair could reach the previous lows, potentially giving me a 0.60% win for a 1.2-to-1 return-on-risk on this setup.
Now this trade I’m not too giddy about because I may have entered a wee bit early. Price spiked down to my sell stop order at 1.9925 during the BOE Super Thursday but failed to show further downside momentum below the double top neckline.
Thank goodness I only risked a very small part of my account on that entry and I’ve got a really wide stop past the 2.0300 handle. I’m still bearish on the pound, though, but I’m getting concerned that the oil price bounce last week was too good to last.
The meeting between Venezuela and other small OPEC nations over the weekend didn’t seem to bear much fruit, as oversupply issues remain and WTI crude oil is now trading below $30/barrel once more.
I’m open to closing this trade early but I’ll probably wait for a better price to exit once the U.K. manufacturing production numbers come out tomorrow. For now, I’m looking at close to 200 pips in losses or a 0.11% dent on my account for this forex setup, which ain’t too bad since I just risked 0.25% on my market entry.
Do you think there are any other adjustments I should be making? Don’t forget to check out our risk disclosure if you’re also taking these setups and as always, I’d love to hear your feedback on my forex ideas!
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