Forex Trade Update: Watching AUD/USD Before the FOMC Statement

So far so good on my AUD/USD short trade! I was able to get in at .7100 right around last week’s FOMC statement then the pair gained bearish forex momentum after the RBA statement yesterday. Think I should make some adjustments?

Oh, if you’re wondering what I’m talking about, make sure you check out my initial AUD/USD trade idea right here.

AUD/USD 4-hour Forex Chart

AUD/USD 4-hour Forex Chart

I’ll be holding on to this trade for now, especially since risk aversion appears to be popping its head back in the forex market. Last time I checked, crude oil oversupply concerns are still in play and central banks have been acknowledging the possibility of a global economic slowdown. Yikes!

Earlier today, Australia printed a weaker than expected trade balance, with the deficit widening to 3.54 billion AUD due to falling export levels. For the month of December, shipments slumped by 5% while imports chalked up a 1% decline, also reflecting a drop in domestic demand.

Up ahead, I’ll be keeping close tabs on the U.S. ADP non-farm employment figures and ISM non-manufacturing PMI, as well as Friday’s NFP report. Even though Fed officials have reiterated that they’re paying closer attention to inflation data rather than jobs readings these days, I’m thinking that employment reports could still push the dollar around.

Here’s what I got:

Shorted AUD/USD at .7100, stop loss at .7310, profit target at .6850. Don’t forget to check out our risk disclosure if you’re with me on this one.

So far, I’m up around 0.25% on this position since I risked only 0.5% of my account on the trade. I’m going for a 1.5-to-1 return-on-risk, keeping my fingers crossed that price makes it all the way down to my PT.

Got any comdoll trade ideas you’d like to share? Post ’em right here!


Happy time

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  • REPforex

    Didn’t get in as early as you did on this one, but looks like a good spot.

    • ‘Twas looking pretty swell yesterday but that dollar selloff came out of nowhere! I’m considering cutting losses if risk appetite stays on for the rest of the day. Where are you planning on getting in?

      • REPforex

        Yeah I hit stop loss and closed out yesterday. The news out of US must have been worse than AU. It’s pullback looks to be coming to an end… I’ll be looking to short again after some bearish action. Entry ~.715. Thoughts?

        • That entry around .7150-.7200 would’ve worked out much better so I hope you did get in! As for me, I’m still holding on to my short position and keeping my fingers crossed that it moves much lower today.

          • REPforex

            Yeah got in, however, set trailing stop loss too tight worried about it rebounding again so only banked 10pips. Fortunately, was also short on AUDJPY at the same time for 300 pips.

          • Lucky you! That AUDJPY selloff was pretty steep yesterday so congrats on your win!

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