With the Australian jobs report expected to show a decline in hiring for January and the U.S. just having printed a stellar NFP reading, I’m thinking of selling AUD/USD with this short-term forex retracement setup:
As you can see on the pair’s 1-hour forex time frame, an area of interest is located around .8000, which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the latest swing high and low. Stochastic is still moving up, which means that Aussie bulls could take price back up to that area prior to the release of the jobs report on Thursday’s Asian trading session.
The forex calendar shows that market analysts are expecting to see a 4.7K drop in employment, which might bring the jobless rate up from 6.1% to 6.2% in January. This could revive talks of another rate cut from the RBA, which might allow the AUD/USD downtrend to resume. In contrast, the FOMC sounded more hawkish in their latest policy statement and the U.S. January jobs data supported their upbeat outlook.
I’ll be ready to short at market if the actual Australian jobs figures come in below expectations, but for now I’ve got my eyes locked on the potential entry area around .8000. I’m planning on setting my stop at .8100 and I’ll be aiming for new lows below .7600.
What do you think of my forex trade idea this week? As always, I’d love to get your feedback on this!
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