Comdoll Weekly Replay (Aug 29-Sept 2, 2011): NZD/USD Divergence Play

Best Comdoll Setup of the Week:

All three comdolls made 100-pip moves last week but the best setup of the week goes to NZD/USD!

NZD/USD 100-pip divergence trade

We saw a lot of consolidation with the commodity currencies during the start of the week, as traders hesitated to take any positions prior to the NFP release. And when the U.S. surprised the markets with a BIG FAT ZERO on its employment report, boy, did we see some huge breakouts!

I picked this NZD/USD setup as the best one for the week because, aside from simply consolidating near a minor psychological level, it also formed a nice bearish divergence right before the drop. Had I shorted at .8550 with a 35-pip stop, I would’ve made close to 3:1 on this trade. Geez, I can’t believe I missed another profitable setup again…

Oh well, no use crying over spilled milk, I guess. On the brighter side, let’s all give happy snaps to my latest BFF @Forex_Vendetta!

BFF: Best Forex Friend of the Week:

If you’re still not following @Forex_Vendetta on Twitter, you definitely should! Don’t be scared by his eerie profile pic, he’s actually one of the sweetest Twitter friends I’ve got. And just because he’s obviously a “V for Vendetta” fan, it doesn’t mean he only uses words that start with the letter V!

More often than not, he takes scalp trades but he’s also open to taking longer-term trades when he sees strong trends developing. In this case, he sometimes leaves his trades open for much longer in order to ride the wave. This is probably why he said that he can’t trade without the 20EMA, which he uses as a pullback tool in any market and any time frame.

For the newbies out there, you might wanna heed his advice: The only thing you can control in forex is your money. Learn money management skills and you will succeed.

Thank goodness for BFFs like @Forex_Vendetta who remind us that risk management is crucial to our trading success. Oh, and before I forget, you should also drop by his forex trading blog!

If you want to be my next BFF, don’t be shy to talk to me. I don’t bite! Here’s where I’m at:
@Happy_pip Twitter
Playing with Comdolls Facebook page
Happy Pip Comdoll Corners

Can’t wait to hear from you!

Happy time

What Moved the Comdolls Last Week?

It’s that time of the week again, friends! Let’s talk about what news events moved the comdolls last week, shall we?

If you guys remember the comdolls gained against the dollar early in the week on risk appetite in markets and positive economic data from commodity-related countries. Aside from rising oil prices, investors also considered better-than-expected building consents report from New Zealand and new home sales data from Australia.

The comdoll-lovin’ continued on Tuesday as traders priced in more quantitative easing from the Fed. Too bad the good vibes didn’t extend to the Loonie after Canada’s trade deficit rose to its second highest figure ever. Yikes!

Happy Pip's trade buddies

It was around the middle of the week when trouble began brewing for the comdolls. Apparently, concerns in the euro region fueled the risk aversion of investors who were already worried about the U.S. economic growth. Also, USD/CAD retreated from its .9725 intraweek low after Canada’s GDP numbers showed the Canadian economic growth falling by an annualized quarterly figure of 0.4%.

On Thursday the comdolls got a breather from positive Chinese PMI and Australian retail sales reports. It was around this time when my friends and I discussed what I would do with my AUD/USD swing trade. Thanks to their advice, I was able to exit without a scratch! But more on that later.

At the end of the week the comdoll traders got busy despite the lack of economic reports from ALL the commodity-related countries. As early as the Asian session high-yielding currencies dropped like they were on Labor Day sale, which is ironic because it was the surprisingly weaker-than-expected U.S. NFP report that inspired more comdoll-selling. Good thing my friends convinced me to adjust my stop to break even!

With all these price reactions in mind, where do you think will the comdolls go next week? Will they bounce back up on anti-dollar sentiment, or will risk aversion continue to drag them lower? Don’t be afraid to share your thoughts!

Here’s where you can reach me:
@Happy_pip Twitter
Playing with Comdolls Facebook page
Happy Pip Comdoll Corners
MeetPips.com

Keep in touch!

Happy time

2 comments

  1. Stephen Oatley

    Caught that little monkey Kiwi a treat for 120 pips. I took the trade on cross of my MA’s and the sentiment of a world economic slow down I knew the markets would have to start selling off commodities and I choose the Kiwi as it is not propped up by gold or oil. I’m out now but I feel there is still room for further falls after a retracement…   

    Reply
    • Happy Piphappypip Post author

      Congrats on your 120-pip Kiwi win, Stephen!

      Glad to know combining fundamentals and technicals is working for you. Too bad I wasn’t able to join you! Yesterday NZD/USD just fell without a significant resistance. Boo…

      Reply

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