Comdoll Weekly Replay (April 18 – 22, 2011)

Best Comdoll Setup of the Week
The Kiwi dropped heavily against the scrilla early in the week, but NZD/USD also reversed sharply after reaching a few pips below .7850. Actually, now that I’m looking back, there were a lot of signs that could’ve clued me in on a possible reversal!

NZD/USD Reversal

The hammer near .7850 should’ve alerted me since the level has supported the pair early in the day. Also, if I had only looked at Stochastic I would’ve seen the indicator waving at me in the oversold region. What’s more, a bullish divergence was forming in the chart as Stochastic was forming higher lows right around the time when price action was making lower lows. Huhu, how could I have missed that?! If only I wasn’t watching AUD/USD too closely.

If I had gone long at .7850 with a 50-pip stop loss, I probably would’ve called it quits at .8000 when the chart was sporting a bearish divergence near the week’s open price and the previous week high. That would’ve given me 150 pips and a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio!

But oh well, at least I learned something new again. In my next trades, I’ll keep an eye on ALL my Comdoll pairs and try not to focus too much on just one pair (usually AUD/USD). Hopefully I won’t miss opportunities like this one again.

How about you? Did you spot this Kiwi trade last week? Also, do you think you would’ve taken the trade if you had spotted the setup? By the way, special thanks to Paddy B for sharing his thoughts on AUD/USD and @mwangialphonce for giving a shoutout on my Twitter account!

Best of luck to y’all this week!

Happy

What Moved the Comdolls This Week?
Whew! I definitely needed that long weekend! But now it’s the start of another week and you know what that means – more opportunities to gain some pips! To get you started, here’s a recap of what news events rocked the Comdolls this week:

Our Comdolls started the week on the wrong side of the bed when falling commodity prices, weak economic data, and dollar strength reigned in markets. New Zealand reported a softer CPI for the fourth quarter, which reduced speculation of an RBNZ interest rate hike. Of course, it didn’t help that the PBoC once again raised its Reserve Requirement ratio by 50 basis points, forcing banks to keep at least 20.5% of their reserves.

On Tuesday Comdoll price action was all over the charts as strong inflation data in Canada got mixed in with the RBA‘s dovish meeting minutes. Canada’s core CPI printed a 0.7% growth, which is way better than the expected 0.3% rise. Meanwhile, the Aussie lost ground early in the day when the RBA revealed that the interest rate is appropriate for the time being, but quickly regained its losses in the London session and even ended the day near break-even as traders shrugged off the dovish statement.

Greenback boots

Around the middle of the week we saw the Comdolls rebound strongly against the Greenback as traders dumped the benjis like it was last season’s pair of boots. In fact, AUD/USD even blasted through previous highs and ended the day just below 1.0700. Oh okay, maybe Australia’s better-than-expected leading index figures also helped, but you get the picture.

By the end of the week it seemed that commodity bulls were happy with their coup as the Comdolls ended the day barely unchanged against the Greenback. The biggest story of the day was Canada’s mixed retail sales report, which hinted weaker consumer spending in the next few months. As a result, USD/CAD rose from an intraday low of .9454 and ended the day near its open price at .9537. The uneventful price action continued until Friday when major countries had a bank holiday to observe Good Friday.

That’s it for me this morning! I have to unpack and do some start-of-the-week chores in a bit, but I’ll be back for my best Comdoll Setup of the Week! Give me a shoutout in the comment box below or on my Twitter account if you have any questions, suggestions, or even trade ideas you’d like to share!

Happy :D

  • PaddyB

    Depending on data reports I see divergence on the AUD-USD Daily with a possibility of a 50-62 fib pullback to previous resistance now support. So I am certain that it will retrace, breakout long, or trade sideways! :)

    • happypip

      Cool. Thanks for pointing that out! It looks like breakout long is the way to go though. It looked like AUD/USD was ready to retrace but the FOMC statement stoked inflation fears, which pushed both gold and the Aussie up. Did you take a trade on this pair?