Comdoll Trading Kit (March 11 to 15, 2013): Midweek Market Prep

Can you believe that the dollar is DOWN against its counterparts this week?

Midweek Market Prep

Though Australia has been printing weak data lately, the decline in interest rate expectations is keeping both AUD and NZD afloat against the dollar. Meanwhile, the pound and the euro have both kept their heads above water thanks to a bit of profit-taking from last week’s selloff.

Update

The yen is also suffering from the dollar bulls’ excitement thanks to rumors that a BOJ Deputy nominee is having trouble getting the parliament’s approval. USD/JPY erased its 0.80% intraweek gain and is now trading with a 0.22% loss.

And that’s just for the first two days of the week! For the rest of the week I’m keeping close watch at the RBNZ interest rate decision coming up as well as Australia’s employment numbers. Oh, and don’t forget the big U.S. retail sales report at 12:30 pm GMT. I hear that markets are expecting good things from the report. Watch out for a possible downside surprise!

Potential Trade Setups

AUD/USD: 1.0300 Resistance
AUD/USD ResistanceAUD/USD has made some failed attempts to break above the 1.0300 major psychological level over the past few days. Right now, the pair is once again testing that resistance level after forming a long-wicked candle and with stochastic making its way down from the overbought zone. Could this mean the pair is headed back to the 1.0200 level again? See the setup

USD/CAD: Moving Sideways
USD/CAD Moving SidewaysUSD/CAD has stalled from its recent rallies as it started to move sideways since last week. The pair is moving between support at the 1.0240 area and resistance around 1.0330. Stochastic is crawling out of the oversold region at the moment, suggesting a potential bounce back up to 1.0330. Or is another test of 1.0240 in the cards? See the setup

NZD/USD: Stuck in the Middle
NZD/USD Middle of the RangeNZD/USD also appears to be ranging in the meantime but the pair is currently stuck in the middle of the range, undecided which way to go. Stochastic, however, is hinting at a southbound move back to support around the .8200 major psychological level. But if this is just a small retracement, NZD/USD could still test the resistance around .8325. See the setup

Comdoll Event Highlights for March 11-15, 2013

Calendar

I’m not seeing major events from China or Canada this week, so the Aussie and Kiwi might get more action than the Loonie. Australia is due to release its business and consumer confidence reports as well as its employment numbers while the RBNZ will make waves for New Zealand with its monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

Not much else for the comdolls this week, so watch out for major reports from the other economies that could affect appetite for the comdolls. Also keep an eye out for any economic report that might influence the demand for the high-yielding currencies.

If you’re like me and you’re still unsure where the comdolls will go, maybe a look at the potential inflection points on AUD/USD, USD/CAD, and NZD/USD will help us out.

Significant Levels to Watch Out For


AUD/USD USD/CAD NZD/USD
Week Open (WO)
1.0207
1.0288
0.8196
Previous Week High (PWH)
1.0301
1.0337
0.8351
Previous Week Low (PWL)
1.0114
1.0234
0.8187
Top Weekly ATR (tWATR)
1.0277
1.0287
0.8196
Bottom Weekly ATR (bWATR)
1.0137
1.0233
0.8119
Other significant levels
1.0200, 1.0275
1.0250, 1.0330
0.8200, 0.8280

In case you’re wondering what ATRs are all about and how I computed those figures, make sure you check out my entry explaining my trading strategies.

Chips, dips, and lots and lots of pips!

Happy time

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