Comdoll Trading Kit (April 30-May 4, 2012): Midweek Market Analysis

It’s that time of the week, guys! Wanna know what market themes have been influencing currency price action so far this week? Take a look at my list!

Market Themes

RBA cuts rates by 0.50%
As expected, Governor Stevens and his men decided to cut interest rates during the RBA policy decision as the Australian economy badly needed stimulus and inflation data revealed that there was indeed room for more easing. What came as a slight surprise for the markets was that the central bank slashed rates by 0.50%, twice as much as the predicted 0.25% cut, dragging the Australian dollar even lower.

Fundamentals driving the U.S. dollar?
During these past few days, it seems that the U.S. dollar is no longer being sold off on risk appetite whenever the U.S. economy prints better than expected data. On the contrary, the Greenback has been gaining on higher than expected ISM manufacturing PMI and upbeat remarks from FOMC officials. Could this theme continue until the NFP release on Friday?

Traders’ positioning ahead of NFP Friday
Speaking of the NFP, have you considered which pairs to trade then? Dollar pairs could be in for a bit of consolidation prior to the actual release, although others could start positioning themselves over the next couple of days. The consensus is that the figure would come in at 176K, slightly higher than March’s 120K figure, which could keep the U.S. dollar afloat against its higher-yielding counterparts if fundamentals prevail.

Comdoll Review

Enough about the markets, let’s zoom in on the comdolls!

Comdolls

All three members of the comdoll gang don’t seem to be doing so well this week, as the Aussie, Loonie, and Kiwi are all in the red for now. AUD/USD is down by the largest, being down by more than 1% while the Canadian dollar is putting up a strong fight against the Greenback and keeping its losses at less than 0.5%.

Of course it’s just the middle of the week and plenty of things could still happen! These commodity currencies still have a few days to stage a strong comeback and end the week in the green, who knows?

Hope you’re having a good trading week! And don’t be shy to share your trade ideas with me if you have any!

Comdoll Event Highlights for April 30 – May 4, 2012

Calendar

China and Japan might have a lot of bank holidays this week due to Labor Day and Golden Week celebrations, but it doesn’t make the NFP week any less exciting for the comdolls!

New Zealand kicked off the week with a strong building consents and weaker-than-expected trade balance data. The action will pick up later today when Canada releases its GDP data.

Of course, who could forget that the RBA is due to release its monetary policy report tomorrow? Traders are looking for a 0.25% to 0.50% cut in interest rates, so watch your AUD trades closely at this time!

The rest of the week is peppered with manufacturing reports from China and the U.S., while some big-hitting employment reports from the U.S. will also hit the newswires. Don’t forget to be snappy on Friday! Not only will the U.S. release the anticipated NFP report, but Canada is also scheduled to release its IVEY PMI report. Talk about an action-packed week!

Now let’s take a look at the significant inflection points on our comdoll charts:

Significant Levels to Watch Out For


AUD/USD USD/CAD NZD/USD
Week Open (WO)
1.0463
0.9813
0.8226
Previous Week High (PWH)
1.0476
0.9980
0.8234
Previous Week Low (PWL)
1.0247
0.9800
0.8225
Top Weekly ATR (tWATR)
1.0574
0.9887
0.8316
Bottom Weekly ATR (bWATR)
1.0351
0.9737
0.8137
Other significant levels
1.0360, 1.0500
0.9965, 0.9850
0.8180, 0.8250

In case you’re wondering what ATRs are all about and how I computed those figures, make sure you check out my entry explaining my trading strategies.

If you’ve got any trade setups you’d like to share, you know where to reach me!

@Happy_pip Twitter
Playing with Comdolls Facebook page
Happy Pip Comdoll Corners
MeetPips.com

Good luck in your trades this week, buddies!

Happy time

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1 comment

  1. swanforex

    Thanks for your trading kits!!…..Noticed a double bottom on the USD/CAD daily time frame……from last weekend……does that mean a break upwards is due?….is that what a double bottom typically means?

    Reply

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