Break and Retest on AUD/USD? – Orders Canceled

Orders Canceled: 2012-03-09 7:00

Hmm, it looks like the odds are stacking against my trade idea. If you remember, my AUD/USD short is largely based on a bearish bias towards the Greek PSI announcement.

But now that Greece has already announced an 85.8% participation rate for its bond holders and AUD/USD still hasn’t gone up to 1.0700, I’m thinking twice about entering at market.

First of all, it’s in my 2012 trading resolutions not to leave a trade open over the weekend. Not only that, it also looks like the Aussie bears aren’t too keen on dragging the currency lower. A couple of hours ago Australia printed a worse-than-expected trade balance report, but AUD/USD only dropped by a couple of pips before testing the 1.0650 handle again.

And if that’s not enough to make me skittish about shorting the Aussie, today is also an NFP Friday!

Oh well, it looks like I might not follow up my NZD/USD win with another one for this week. But hey, there’s always next week, right?

How about you? Has anyone shorted (and made profits) from AUD/USD this week? I’d love to hear from you!

Good luck trading and happy weekend, forex fanatics!

Trade Idea: 2012-03-08 2:58

My, oh my! With so much going on in the markets these days, it’s really tough to pick a pair and a direction. For one thing, the upcoming decision on Greek bond swaps could set off fireworks later on as it could decide whether Greece will default on its debt or not. You see, this particular issue has been one of the major themes driving the markets lately and it’ll be interesting to see how it will affect risk sentiment.

AUD/USD Trade Idea

So for my trade idea this week, I decided to stick to the basics of fundamental analysis in picking which comdoll pair to trade.

I noticed that the Aussie has several bearish factors dragging it down lately, such as China’s growth forecasts downgrade and the RBA’s not-so-upbeat rate statement. To top it off, gold has been selling off like crazy lately and that can’t be good for AUD/USD.

As for technicals, I’m looking at a potential retracement on the 4-hour time frame. As you can see, the former support area around 1.0650 to 1.0700 lines up with Fib levels so I will probably set my short orders there depending on the outcome of the Greek PSI announcement.

Here’s my plan:

Short AUD/USD at 1.0700, stop at 1.0775, PT around 1.0500

Do you think this trade idea will work out? Or should I stay out completely what with the NFP coming up? As always, you know where to reach me!

Happy time

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  • Bhaveek

    which charting software you are using here???

    • happypip

      Hey Bhaveek!

      I’m using Xtick for my images :)

  • azrijaafar

    Agree with mo pips and Gmkar30. Double top at fib 0.500 anyway. Not into this trade but i think TP shall be @ 1.0575 and 1.0530

    • happypip

      Oh man, I think I missed out on this one. Yep, that 1.0530-75 area looks like good PT levels. Not planning to take any trades before the NFP?

      • azrijaafar

        i am trading using 1 hr chart, filtered my entry with rsi and ma. both doesnt show solid reason for me to enter yet tho. after london open? maybe.. who know rite??

  • Gmkar30

    I will place my short at 1.65 , I doubt AUD/USD will go further to 1.700 area

    • happypip

      Yep, that’s also one of my options. It’s near today’s DATR and last week’s low. Where’s your profit target? :)

  • mo pips

    Two mini double  tops @1.0650. All Aboard!
     

    • happypip

      Yipes, it looks like you were right about 1.0650. Good luck on your trade!