Close Trade: 2009-04-24 11:44
Good morning! AUD/USD continued to rise today from the open of the European trading session and into the US session on broad US Dollar weakness. The pair violated the falling trendline and Fibonacci levels. With price action not playing out like I hoped, I have decided to close my trade early ahead of the weekend.
Close short AUD/USD position at .7220
Total: -50 pips/ -0.50% loss
It looks like Aussie strength just might be here to stay on the longer time frame as .7000 held. It is projected that Australia will be one of the major economies to come out the least scathed, so look for further strength in the medium to long term.
So, a very small loss today, but it’s time to shake it off, enjoy the weekend, and get refreshed before trading on Monday. Stay tuned!
Trade Idea: 2009-04-23 18:33
Good evening! There is a simple trendline play forming on AUD/USD as the Aussie rallies on risk appetite growth. Investors grew confident to take some risk today as analysts expect better-than-estimated earnings from many US companies. Will risk tolerance continue to prevail into the weekend? I don’t know, but it’s hard to turn up a nice and simple trendline play.
Again, it is a simple chart play as the pair rallies higher to the falling trendline drawn on the chart. This happens to coincide with the 50% – 61% Fibonacci retracement area drawn. Also, stochastics are indicating that the pair may be running out of steam as it continues to head higher. Will seller take control once again? We’ll have to wait and see.
With stochastics just entering overbought conditions, I will wait for a slightly better price and for the pair to the falling trendline. My stop will be 100 pips to give the trade some breathing room and my profit targets will the previous low just below .7000 and previous support around .6780.
Here’s what I am going to do:
Short AUD/USD at .7170, stop at .7270, pt1 at .6970, pt2 at .6770
Remember to never risk more than 1% of any account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.
Needless to say, this may be a longer term swing trade, so depending on price action I may hold this into the weekend.
Stay tuned and good luck!