AUD/USD – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2008-07-30 08:34

It looks like the major trendline on our chart has broken as USD momentum continues today on the back of declining commodity prices and a positive ADP report out of the US.

Our trade was stopped right after the release of the ADP Employment beat the expectations of -48K jobs with a surprise read of +9k jobs gain.

Total: – 75 pips/ -1.0% loss

It looks like the USD rally against the Aussie may be for real with this trendline break, so look for short opportunities in the pair for the short term. Good luck!

Trade Update: 2008-07-29 15:12

We’ve finally hit our entry orders as the Greenback rallies on declining oil prices and a positive US Consumer Confidence report. Will the rising trendline hold?

Much has been priced into AUD/USD, including concerns for further global credit tightening, falling commodity prices, and the potential for further mortgage related losses. Further downside may be limited for moment, and if the longer trend holds, this may provide the opportunity for traders to jump in on the attractive interest rate differential between the two currencies.

I look to hold for now, but stay tuned for quick adjustment including a position closure if USD bullishness continues and the pair breaks the trend. Good luck!

Trade Idea: 2008-07-23 20:08

comdollsff

Recent strength in the Greenback has pulled AUD/USD down to an area of potential support, giving a nice opportunity to catch the trend and a positive interest rate differential. Are buyers ready to jump back into AUD/USD?

We have a very simple chart today, as we see an opportunity to catch the bottom of the rising channel.

Recent comments from Plosser, weakening oil, and the US Government saving Fannie and Freddie has boosted the Greenback for the past couple of the days. Also, interest in gold as an inflation hedge wanes as oil drops down below $125 a barrel.

Will US Dollar continue, or will market players now focus on recent reports of how Australian CPI and growth remain strong. The RBA is also likely to remain hawkish on interest rates until CPI drops, thus supporting sentiment for a strong Australian Dollar.

My play is simple today as I look to go long near the bottom of the channel just above .9500.

Long AUD/USD at .9520, stop at .9445, pt1 at .9595, pt2 at .9670

Remember to never risk more than 1% of your account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly.

Good luck!

16 comments

  1. LTN7

    Price is retracing now and while 0.9520 is ideal level to go long, I will rather wait for a stalling signal first before initiating any reverse long trade. Right now retracement momentum still remain very strong and price may even retrace to o.9405 before stalling if support level at o.9485 is breached. Thats my 2 cents worth…

    Reply
  2. LTN7

    Price is retracing now and while 0.9520 is ideal level to go long, I will rather wait for a stalling signal first before initiating any reverse long trade. Right now retracement momentum still remain very strong and price may even retrace to o.9405 before stalling if support level at o.9485 is breached. Thats my 2 cents worth…

    Reply
  3. babyfxtrader

    LTN7, i understand where you are coming from. However, what happypip’s idea is mainly supported by the upward channel.
    i put in 1/2 my regular lot on this trade as i’m also considering the USD bulls momentum on this pair.

    If it goes below 9520, then i would place another 1/2 lot long at .9450.

    cheers

    Reply
  4. babyfxtrader

    LTN7, i understand where you are coming from. However, what happypip’s idea is mainly supported by the upward channel.
    i put in 1/2 my regular lot on this trade as i’m also considering the USD bulls momentum on this pair.

    If it goes below 9520, then i would place another 1/2 lot long at .9450.

    cheers

    Reply
  5. LTN7

    I will post my reversal signal if I see it. Its always safer to buy/sell on dips/bounces AFTER first reversal signal is generated.. hope we can all make some pips !!

    Reply
  6. babyfxtrader

    LTN7, that would be great.
    I’m actually still holding on to my trade short aud/usd @ .9660. I feel that the momentum is still toward the south.

    Reply
  7. LTN7

    I will post my reversal signal if I see it. Its always safer to buy/sell on dips/bounces AFTER first reversal signal is generated.. hope we can all make some pips !!

    Reply
  8. babyfxtrader

    LTN7, that would be great.
    I’m actually still holding on to my trade short aud/usd @ .9660. I feel that the momentum is still toward the south.

    Reply
  9. pakiestra

    Bearish engulfing pattern (quite strong signal but I know it needs confirmation) on the daily candlestick for AUS/USD, I think I may be leaving long side for now before I got another nose bleed with full S/L being triggered

    Reply
  10. pakiestra

    Bearish engulfing pattern (quite strong signal but I know it needs confirmation) on the daily candlestick for AUS/USD, I think I may be leaving long side for now before I got another nose bleed with full S/L being triggered

    Reply

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