AUD/JPY: Waiting for Kuroda’s Speech – Trade Closed

Trade Closed: 2013-03-22 2:03
What a letdown by Kuroda! Just when I thought he was ready to unveil his aggressively dovish plans for Japan, he stayed mum about the details instead. I thought I heard a few yen-bearish remarks such as “bold quantitative and qualitative” easing plans but, unfortunately, these weren’t enough to trigger the sharp yen selloff I was expecting.

AUD/JPY Trade Closed

Luckily, I was able to cut my losses as I decided to exit early when the 99.00 handle broke down. I figured that, if traders didn’t react strongly to his speech, then the yen was likely to stay supported until the end of the day. I jumped ship before price even hit my stop as I closed at 98.56.

Here’s the damage:

P/L: -44 pips/-0.4%

Oh dear, that just means my losing streak got extended! I could really use your help bouncing back this week so let me know if you have any comdoll trade setups in mind!

Trade Update: 2013-03-22 2:03

Well played, Mr. Kuroda!

Like our very own Bernanke, Kuroda said little about the BOJ’s concrete plans in his first ever speech yesterday. Instead, he just emphasized that the BOJ would take a more active role in the economy.

AUD/JPY Trade Update

The volatility surrounding his announcement was enough to hit my entry orders though. Right now AUD/JPY is hanging around at the Fib levels that we pointed out, which is near a rising trend line. And since no reports are scheduled from either Australia or Japan, I believe that optimism for the comdolls would continue to drive the pair higher.

I’m keeping my trade open over the weekend but I’ll keep close tabs on the trade. More specifically, I’ll watch for early signs that end-of-fiscal-year profit-taking flows are invalidating my trade idea. I hope it doesn’t though. Fingers crossed!

Good luck and have a great weekend, everyone!

Trade Idea: 2013-03-21 4:00

What’s this I hear about new BOJ Governor Kuroda scheduled to make his first speech today? I do know that he’s a very dovish man so I’m looking to buy AUD/JPY when he starts talkin’ easing!

AUD/USD Trade Idea

Among the commodity currencies, I chose to trade Aussie against the yen because it seems to be the stronger one among the bunch. After all, the RBA is one of the more upbeat central banks around as they aren’t looking to ease monetary policy anytime soon. It also helps that China, Australia’s number one trade partner, just posted a stronger than expected HSBC flash manufacturing PMI figure during today’s Asian session.

As for technicals, I’m waiting for a retracement to the 99.00 major psychological level before jumping in long. After all, Cyclopip tells me that round numbers do tend to hold well for yen pairs. The 99.00 mark is also in line with the 50% Fib and around the rising trend line on the 1-hour time frame. Stochastic hasn’t reached the oversold zone yet, so this pair might still dip a little lower.

In case it doesn’t reach 99.00 though, I’m also prepared to buy this pair at market if it pops up during Kuroda’s testimony. He is expected to talk about aggressive monetary policy easing measures in order to keep the yen’s value down and ward off deflation in Japan, so this might be very bearish for the yen.

Regardless of where I’m able to enter, I’ve set my line in the sand at 98.40. This is below the 61.8% Fib, trend line, and 98.50 minor psychological support. I’m eyeing the 100.00 mark, which is in line with last week’s high, as my initial target. I’ll be risking 0.5% of my account on this trade so read our risk disclosure if you plan on joining me!

Do you think I’ll be able to break my losing streak with this one?

Chips, dips, and lots and lots of pips!

Happy time

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  • TBL

    I’m watching the USDJPY, EUDJPY and the AUDJPY, HappyPip.

    • happypip

      Cool! What’s your bias? Are you bullish or bearish on the yen? 🙂

      • TBL

        Overall bullish. I was able to take some minor profit (long) yesterday from the AUDJPY and USDJPY during the Fed meeting / Bernanke news conference report.

        If there is any worry, it is that Europe and Cyprus may cause rising risk adversity and throw a wrench into the pip-making machine… 🙁

        • Guest

          USD/JPY Path to 100 in regards to buying the yes
          If the buffers right and your margins are set buy on dips get happy pips. I’m BULLISH TILL 100

          • nico

            then you better get ready for some pain in the meanwhile

      • TBL

        Well… looks like nothing much came out of the press conference 😀

  • stanleychee76@yahoo.com.sg

    You can jump back in on AUD/JPY on the short side; on 1 HR, Slow Stochastic is coming off 80 level, and MACD poised for crossover. Entry below the Ichimoku cloud. PT at the top of cloud on 4 HR, which crossover of the Tenkan and Kijun sens had happened

  • stanleychee76@yahoo.com.sg

    Failed to mention, SL at day’s high – 99.25, entry 99.00, PT 98.50, which coincides with rising trendline and 50% Fib level (swing low 17/Mar, swing high 20/Mar)