Trade Update: 2011-11-15 1:34
AUD/USD strikes back! Just when I thought my AUD/USD curse was lifted and I’d be able to score another hundred or so pips with the pair, I got stopped out. Not only did it break my heart, but it broke several resistance levels as well!
As you can see from the chart, AUD/USD surged back above the 1.0200 resistance area that I pointed out and went all the way up to 1.0300 before the week ended. As it turns out, Greek and Italian lawmakers inspired a risk rally when both countries announced a new set of leaders.
That was enough for the pair to break above the symmetrical triangle I drew, leaving me frustrated about that downside fakeout. Boy I really do need to review the lessons on trading breakouts and how to trade fakeouts in the School of Pipsology!
Anyway, here’s the damage on my account:
P/L: -100 pips / -0.78%
I really REALLY need to bounce back this week, so won’t you help me out? Pretty please? Holler at me through any of these pages or through the comment box below:
Chips, dips, and goshdarnit, I want those pips!
Trade Update: 2011-11-11 1:48
Enough watching by the sidelines, it’s time to enter some trades! After the 1.0200 resistance held for AUD/USD yesterday, I decided to enter at market instead of waiting for more favorable (but has less chances of getting triggered) retracement levels.
I ended up entering at 1.0165 since I decided to wait for a bearish candle to close on the 1-hour chart. I also placed a 100-pip stop loss, which is just above the higher Fibs that I pointed out yesterday. Meanwhile, my first profit target is set at parity but I plan to move my stop to breakeven once price falls below 1.0100.
I know my profit target is a bit ambitious considering that I have an interesting relationship with AUD/USD, but I learned from my last AUD trade that I have to risk it to get that sweet biscuit. For those who haven’t read it yet, I could’ve ended up with at least twice my 100-pip win if I hadn’t closed my last trade early. Boo!
Again, here are my trade details this time:
Shorted 0.75% of my account at 1.0165, SL at 1.0265 with my first PT at 1.0000.
Sounds good, too ambitious, or too safe? Watcha think?
Trade Idea: 2011-11-10 6:07
Thanks to my recent 100-pip win with AUD/USD, I’m no longer scared of trading this pair. I might’ve missed out on a few pips by closing my recent short trade early (okay, it’s a lot of pips actually, more like a couple hundred) but I’m ready to try again! Here’s the setup I’m looking at:
There’s a head and shoulders pattern that formed on the 4-hour chart and, unless my eyes are deceiving me, I think AUD/USD already made a break below the neckline. I’m too scared to just jump in, knowing that Aussie bears could still use a breather after that strong selloff the other day. With that, this baby could still pull back to a few resistance levels I’m watching.
I’m crossing my fingers that AUD/USD would retrace to the 1.0200 level, which is in line with the previous week low and the bottom WATR. Then again, the pair might not climb that high, especially since word through the grapevine is that the COT report turned net bearish on AUD/USD.
On top of that, fundamentals aren’t really the Aussie’s best friend right now, are they? Data from Australia has been missing expectations as they reported poor trade balance figures and another decline in job advertisements. Although their October jobs data came in line with expectations, weak figures from China are hinting at a future slowdown. Did you see that massive drop in China’s annual inflation and their bleak trade surplus? I bet the High Expectations Asian Father meme would find those very disappointing!
Add to that the ever-present debt concerns in the euro zone that continue to hurt risk appetite. Last I heard, Italian bond yields jumped above the 7.0% threshold, suggesting that the land of pizza and pasta might need a bailout soon. Now that’s gonna be difficult considering Italy is euro zone’s third largest economy!
With that, I’m waiting to short AUD/USD again but I still haven’t completely figured out my entries and targets just yet. For now, I’m keeping a close eye on the ’50s and ’00s in case AUD/USD finds resistance there. Oh, and I’ll be watching those candlesticks carefully, too! Thanks for the advice Mario!
How about you? Any advice on how I can improve on this setup or work on my trading in general? Let me know through any of the accounts below:
Chips, dips, and let’s get those pips!