The Euro Continues to Make History

EUR/USD

Mmm mm mm…the Euro is being a stubborn child as it keeps goin higher and higher. You might ask, "Big Pippin, don’t you think it’s time that you were bullish on the Euro?" My response to that is, "NO WAY!". Now you might be calling me stubborn, but I’m in fact being what’s called a contrarian. It’s not always easy to have a view thats opposite of the consensus, but that’s how the biggest bucks are made. I’ve been gradually scaling in on this pair and I’m still waiting for it to drop. Both 4hr and daily stochastics are and have been in overbought territory for a while now, and I’m agreeing with those indicators in that I believe this pair is overextended. I’m looking at this pair going back down to 3900 by the end of next week.

GBP/USD

Well just as I thought. The Cable continued to run sideways as it moved back up after falling yesterday. At this point I am still undecided on this pair and will hold off another day until I see something convincing happen.

USD/CHF

Well the Swissy did actually travel up to its 50 EMA like I said yesterday but quickly afterwards, it dropped right through its 1800 support level and fell all the way to 1700, which has become its new support. Both 4hr and daily stochastics are in oversold territory and I would look for the Swissy to bounce off of 1700 and move back up to around 1750.

USD/JPY

Well the drop that I was waiting for finally happened today. The pair fell about 200 pips today which made me a nice gain! Right now daily stochastics seem to be crossing down after just nipping overbought territory while today’s movement has caused the 4hr stochastics to drop into oversold territory. The pair has seemed to find support at 114.00 and I would look for it to continue drifting up to around 115.00.

I’m not really big into fundamentals but I feel that they are important to discuss. In this section I will be posting fundamental tidbits that I find interesting from various sources. If you find an article that you think would benefit everyone, please email me (Big Pippin) with your username, the article, and a link to where members can read the entire article.

Now onto the Fundamentals:
  • 50 bps rate cut scares Chuck Butler:
    • Let me tell you what it scares me about the 50 BPS rate cut…
      1. It doesn’t do anything to help the liquidity / credit crunch…
      2. It allows inflation to take hold even more.
      3. Stocks had better start kicking some tail to attract foreign investment, because our deposit rates aren’t going to!

  • Credit market is not so great. Hank Paulson, US Treasury Secretary said in Financial Times:
    • The crisis of confidence in credit markets is likely to last longer than previous financial shocks of the past two decades, Hank Paulson, Treasury secretary, warned on Tuesday. He said the uncertainty in credit markets would last longer than the turmoil that followed the Asian crisis and the Russian default of the 1990s or the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s. Mr. Paulson said the likely duration of the turmoil reflected the difficulties of financial services companies in valuing complex assets tainted by mortgage-backed securities.