The Dollar opens up the week strong!

Last week I kept griping about how the dollar was moving like a drunken horse against the majors. It would move up against some and down against others. Well today, the dollar seemed to regain some normality as it moved in sync across the board. Today the victory went to the dollar as it made decent gains against all 4 majors. Against the Yen, the dollar has gone all the way back up to 122.00. Will the dollar continue to gain or will the price fall back down? Dun dun dun!!…

Chart Analysis:

EUR/USD

The Euro has now made a triple top at around the 3040 level. Within the past month the price has been moving up to around 3040 and then falling back down to 2900. It’s done this 3 times now! So will history repeat itself again? My guess is that it will. Look for the price to drop back down to around 2900, and from there the price could repeat again and move back up….OR it could break the mold and continue to head down. In the immediate future, there’s a good chance the price will follow it’s typical pattern and fall to the 2900 area.

Trade Idea:

Sell at market (around 2960); Stop Loss= 3010; Target= 2900

The 100 SMA is right around 2914 so I may look to exit early if the price action looks like it’s slowing down but I will put out a post if I decide to do this.

GBP/USD

The Cable has finally broken through its 61% Fib line on the daily chart which is a good bearish sign. Daily stochastics is just now heading into oversold territory but I still think we’ll see more selling pressure from the Cable before it heads back up. I’m thinking that the pair will probably fall to 9400. I don’t see any major support or resistance levels other than the 9450 level so if the price can break through that, then 9400 is a good target. Oh and just to recap what I said on Thursday (and Tuesday)…I said that usually when the Cable makes a big candle (either up or down) and closes near its high or low, there is usually a good chance the price will continue in that direction the following day. I first made that statement on Tuesday, and of course the market made me look dumb. I said it again on Thursday because there was a good bearish candle and thank goodness; on Friday, the price continued to move in that direction and thereby redeemed my statement. So I’m not "always" wrong! I thought I should just point that out!

USD/CHF

The Swissy has once again broken through 2500 but will it continue to rise? The last time the pair broke 2500, it got up to 2576 and then fell right back down to as low as 2375. Daily stochastics are trending up with plenty of room for some upward movement so there is a good chance the pair will continue to rise.

USD/JPY

The Yen is once again at 122.00 and daily stochastics are still trending up which gives me an indication that the pair might have a little more rally in it. However, 122.00 is a big psychological level so I’m not sure if the markets will push the price any higher. It may spike to around 122.50 before heading back down but my gut feeling is telling me that the pair will fall to at least 121.00.