Recapping the Majors
EUR/USD– Now the Euro is moving! The break above 3400 must’ve sparked others to go bullish on the pair as it continued to skyrocket up to around 3450. This break may be the start of a bullish Euro movement as 3400 was a pretty strong resistance level.
Result: The Euro rallied higher against the Dollar, breaking a major resistance level at 3400 and soaring to almost as high as 3450.
GBP/USD- The Sterling continued to fall today as it pierced below 9700 after hitting the 9800 resistance a couple of days ago. The Sterling eventually rebounded after the pair broke 9700 and rallied slightly to bring the pair back above 9700 where it is currently trading around 9710.
Result: The Dollar pushed the Sterling lower but the pair still has found support at the 9700 area.
USD/CHF- The Dollar continued to fall against the Swissy for the 2nd straight day after reaching its 38% Fib line and 50 EMA on the daily chart. The pair had been ranging between 2100-2200 before the Dollar finally rallied above 2200 two days ago. The pair has now fallen back within 2100-2200 but the strong momentum to the downside could spark further drops.
Result: The Dollar fell for the 2nd straight day against the Swissy, bringing the pair back within the 2100-2200 range.
USD/JPY- The Dollar fell towards 118.50 but found support there as it then proceeded to rally towards 119.00. The 119.00 resistance also held its ground and the Dollar fell back down towards 118.50. The pair bounced between these two levels the entire day and it could take a break of one of these levels for us to see a clear direction for the pair.
Result: The pair pretty much stayed put with the Dollar finding support at 118.50 and resistance at 119.00
Chart Analysis: What’s going to happen next?
Well I was wrong about the 3400 holding its ground and the Euro proceeded to shoot past this level and almost went as high as 3450. This break could be significant as 3400 is a really good resistance level but it also could just be a false "knee-jerk" movement. 4hr stochastics are in overbought territory which indicates that we could see a retracement soon, but daily stochastics are trending up and still has some room before it reaches overbought territory which means that this 3400 break could be the start of a nice Euro rally. Look for the pair to retrace slightly to around 3400, which is now a support area, and then proceed to move back up towards 3450.
The Cable was only able to pierce the 9700 level but ended up rising back above it. Both 4hr and daily stochastics are trending down which makes me bearish on the pair. I also believe that today’s drop confirms the 9800 resistance level and if the pair breaks 9700, we could see the pair continue on down to around 9600 where the 100 SMA is on the 4hr chart.
The Swissy headed back down into the 2100-2200 range and seeing as how the 38% Fib line and 50 EMA held strong I’m starting to feel bearish on the pair. 4hr stochastics are trending down which confirms my bearish sentiment but daily stochastics are still trending up. I think we could see the pair retrace back up slightly but I think over the medium term we should see the pair fall lower. I’m going to short on a rally and set my target somewhere just below 2100.
Short USD/CHF at 2160; Stop Loss= 2215; Target= 2085
The Yen held support at 118.50 but also found resistance at 119.00. I think these 2 levels will be the "make or break" levels for the pair. If the pair breaks below 118.50, then we should see the pair continue on down toe 118.00. If the pair breaks 119.00 then I believe that we could see the pair continue to rally to 119.50. Until then, I think it would be wise to hold off as the pair continues to bounce in between the 118.50 and 119.00 levels.