The Dollar continues to rally

EUR/USD

Well the Euro did not only drop like I thought it would on Thursday, but it plummetted down to the depths of the 4300-4400 range. Now the pair has eased back up and is trading around 4360. Right now the technicals are giving me mixed signals. 4hr stochastics are way down in oversold territory which indicates a rally in the short term while daily stochastics are trending down and haven’t reached oversold territory yet. This means we could still see the pair continue to fall (possibly to 4300). For now I would hold and wait until things get a little clearer.

GBP/USD

Like the Euro, the Cable fell hard on Friday but has taken a breather today. The pair fell sharply from 2.0450 down to 2.0150 but has since risen to around 2.0180. I am also getting mixed signals on the technicals as 4hr stochastics are in oversold territory while daily stochastics are trending down. For now I would hold off, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see this pair rise up to 2.0200 followed by another fall down to 2.0100.

USD/CHF

The Dollar also rallied against the Swissy as it rose up to 1550. Unlike the Euro and Sterling, the USD/CHF is showing a clearer picture on the technicals. Both 4hr and daily stochastics are giving bearish indications. Daily stochastics are in overbought territory while 4hr stochastics are trending down. However, daily stochastics are still trending up which is why I am choosing to wait on this pair at the moment.

USD/JPY

The Dollar has continued to rally against the Yen, breaking through its resistance at the 50 EMA on the daily chart and now heading towards its 100 SMA. Daily stochastics are in overbought territory but are trending up while 4hr stochastics have also hooked up. We are also seeing 2 different bearish hidden divergences on the daily chart which makes this pair look like a prime candidate for a bearish run. I would look for the pair to hit its 100 SMA followed by a sharp drop back down to its 50 EMA.

 

I’m not really big into fundamentals but I feel that they are important to discuss. In this section I will be posting fundamental tidbits that I find interesting from various sources. If you find an article that you think would benefit everyone, please email me (Big Pippin) with your username, the article, and a link to where members can read the entire article.

Now onto the Fundamentals:
  • Fed Looks to End Credit Crunch
    • The Fed and other global central banks announce a new auction designed to let beleaguered financial institutions access more cash.
    • In essence, the Fed is giving beleaguered banks the opportunity to access funds it might need for year’s end without having to borrow money directly from the Fed at the discount rate of 4.75 percent.
    • The Fed added that it was coordinating with the Bank of Canada, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Swiss National Bank on the auction process in order to "address elevated pressures in short-term funding markets."
  • Fed Forecasts Slower Growth and More Out of Work Next Year
    • The housing collapse and credit crisis will slow economic growth and nudge up unemployment next year, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday in a first-of-its-kind forecast that some economists believe will lead to interest rate cuts early in 2008.
  • Bernanke Sees Slower US Growth
    • Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday that a host of economic problems, including the severe housing slump, will cause business growth to slow noticeably in coming months. Bernanke told Congress’ Joint Economic Committee that the central bank is watching developments closely, but gave no signal that it’s prepared at the current time to cut interest rates even further. He stressed that the central bank was keeping all options open, saying the Fed would be closely watching economic growth and the threat of inflation.
  • "Model Behavior"
    • Super Model Gisele Bundchen has decided that she wants to remain the world’s richest model by insisting that she be paid in almost any currency but the U.S. dollar! OK… Now the dollar has been officially dissed! Sure guys like Rogers, Buffett, Gross, Butler, Wiggin, and Bonner have dissed the dollar because of the fundamentals… But when a super model decides to side with us, well then we’ve got ourselves what I’ll call… "Model Behavior"!\
News events to watch for tomorrow :
  • 4:30am EDT- GBP CPI
  • 5:45am EDT- BOE Governor King Speaks
  • 8:30am EDT- US Housing Starts

For a list of all of tomorrow’s news events, check out our Forex Calendar