The Calm Before The “Storm”

The Dollar stayed in a pretty tight range today against the majors with the lack of fundamental reports today. Think of this as the calm before the storm as this week is full of economic activity that should really give the markets some juice!

Chart Analysis:

EUR/USD

The Euro took a little plunge and broke out of the 2900-3000 range I had mentioned last Thursday, dropping all the way down to its 100 SMA on the daily chart which was around 2880. Since then, the Euro has bounced back and is once again smack dab in the middle of 2900-3000 at around 2950. Coincidentally this also happens to be where the 50 EMA and 100 SMA are on the 4 hour chart which means we are at a resistance point. 4 hour stochastics has just entered overbought territory which could support the moving average resistance and push the pair back down. However, I still don’t think the pair is done moving up yet. I could see it going to at least 2970ish and maybe even to 3000 again before bouncing back down. The German CPI will be a key factor in tomorrow’s Euro movement.

GBP/USD

The Cable made a nice doji today on the daily chart, which indicates that the pair may reverse back up after 3 days of losing to the Dollar. At the moment the pair is just above 9600. To get there, the pair broke through its 100 and 200 SMA on the 4 hour chart and with its 4hr stochastics trending up, it looks like the Cable will move towards its 50 EMA which is currently around 9650. Just to make sure this pair is really going up I’m going to wait and see if it can move up a little higher. I’d like to buy at 9620 with a stop below 9600 at 9590, and set my target for 9650.

Trade Idea:

Buy at 9620; Stop Loss= 9590; Target= 9650

USD/CHF

Well after 11 days of a hard fought battle, the Swissy was able to break through 2500 and got to as high as 2576. Now it seems that the pair has cooled off a little bit. 4 hour stochastics are trending down while daily stochastics are trending back up. I’m getting mixed signals right now on the pair and don’t really see any good entry points. However, if the pair does fall, then 2490 and then 2460 seem like good targets as that is where the 50 EMA and 100 SMA are.

USD/JPY

The Yen briefly broke 122.00 but ended up falling back down below it and is now around 121.70. 4 hour stochastics are trending down while daily stochastics is still hovering around the overbought territory. Like the Swissy I’m not really getting any clear indication for a directional bias. However, if the Yen continues to fall then I would expect it to hit its 50 EMA on the 4hr chart which is currently around 121.25.

  • tobesure

    Hi Big Pippin, Looking at GBPUSD after your posting above – 3:42 GMT. There is a large gap that has developed between the fast line (73.9) and the slow line (49.37) on the Stochastic. Just wondering does this, in your experience, have any signifance. The reason I ask is I have not seen this much gap before and wonder how it will close. i.e. is there any expectation of price movement from this pattern?

  • bigpippin

    Good question! I’m not sure if there is an actual name for a stochastic gap but it does happen sometimes, especially on volatile pairs. It just means that we’re seeing an accelerated movement. The interesting thing about this one however is that it happened during a time that is normally very quiet.

  • tobesure

    Hi Big Pippin, Looking at GBPUSD after your posting above – 3:42 GMT. There is a large gap that has developed between the fast line (73.9) and the slow line (49.37) on the Stochastic. Just wondering does this, in your experience, have any signifance. The reason I ask is I have not seen this much gap before and wonder how it will close. i.e. is there any expectation of price movement from this pattern?

  • bigpippin

    Good question! I’m not sure if there is an actual name for a stochastic gap but it does happen sometimes, especially on volatile pairs. It just means that we’re seeing an accelerated movement. The interesting thing about this one however is that it happened during a time that is normally very quiet.

  • FX-tiger

    Bigpippin,

    Could you please tell us what moving averages you use?

    Thanks!

  • bigpippin

    I use a 50 EMA, 100 SMA, and 200 SMA

  • FX-tiger

    Bigpippin,

    Could you please tell us what moving averages you use?

    Thanks!

  • bigpippin

    I use a 50 EMA, 100 SMA, and 200 SMA