Lack of fundamentals this week could lead to more technical trading.

Wow do we have one boring week or what?! There is a lack of major economic reports due out this week and because of that I expect a lot of this weeks movement to be based more on the technicals. I personally don’t mind since I’m mostly a technical trader myself anyways. On to the charts…

Chart Analysis:

EUR/USD

The Euro seems to be following a certain pattern the past few days. It will break above its 50 EMA on the 4hr chart and then end up closing right back below it. I made the mistake of placing an order over the weekend and the market gapped up causing me to get triggered. Of course the market filled its gap like it normally does and I was stopped out. The funny thing is that the trade I posted the past 2 days still looks good. In fact, for the 3rd time, I’m going to re-use this same trade! Buy above the 50 EMA with a stop below it, and set a target for 3000.

Trade Idea:

Buy at 2975; Stop Loss= 2950; Target= 3000; Target 2= 3030

GBP/USD

Once again the Cable made a spinning top type candle on the daily chart today. The pair is pretty much ranging between 9700-9800. Looking at the daily charts, the technicals are showing a good sign that the pair will reverse to the downside. We’ve seen 2 spinning tops in a row now and stochastics is in overbought territory. We also face a pretty strong resistance at 9850 and I think it’s going to take a major fundamental catalyst to push it any higher than that. Remember, 9850 is a 10+ year high! It’s definitely going to take some firepower to get it above that.

USD/CHF

Hmmm…what can I say about the Swissy that I haven’t already said? For about 8 days now, the pair has been trying to break 2500 and each time, it just happens to drop back below it. This tells me that the pair is either going to make a strong reversal or a strong breakout. To me, the safer trade is still to the short side because I have levels I can play with to get an entry. I am also going to recycle the trade I posted over the weekend which didn’t get triggered because I think its still a good trade. I’m going to short below the 50 EMA with a stop above it, and set my target for 2400. I am going to watch this trade like a hawk though. If the pair gets within a few pips of 2400 but can’t seem to quite make it down there, I will manually exit the trade and lock in some profit.

Trade Idea:

Short at 2440; Stop Loss= 2480; Target= 2400; Target 2= 2380

Pip Diddy also has a good analysis on the Swissy right now too. Read all about it in his Chart Art post!

USD/JPY

The Yen and I have a funny relationship. I say it’s going to go down and being the stubborn pair that it is, it decides to keep pushing higher! This is the exact reason I’ve been staying out of this pair. A majority of the time, the markets will range. This is NOT one of those times. We are, and have been seeing a trend in this pair and I’m not going to try to fight it. The Yen is just really taking a beating right now, especially against the Sterling, Euro, and US Dollar. They really need some positive news to get them back in the fight.

  • http://fxsword.com swordofrue

    Nice prediction on Swissy and Eur. As you already know Cable tested 9850 pretty hard, reaching up to 9910 area. You see any upcoming catalyst to push Cable up and beyond 9850 in the near future?

  • http://fxsword.com swordofrue

    Nice prediction on Swissy and Eur. As you already know Cable tested 9850 pretty hard, reaching up to 9910 area. You see any upcoming catalyst to push Cable up and beyond 9850 in the near future?

  • bigpippin

    I still think it’s going to take something major (either extremely GBP positive or extremely USD negative) for the Cable to get to 2.0000. By extreme, I’m referring to a catalyst that will show a probable shift in interest rate differentials between the 2 currencies.

  • bigpippin

    I still think it’s going to take something major (either extremely GBP positive or extremely USD negative) for the Cable to get to 2.0000. By extreme, I’m referring to a catalyst that will show a probable shift in interest rate differentials between the 2 currencies.