I see DeJaVu in the Dollar!

I’ve decided to make a few changes on my blog. From here on out, this blog will only focus on the technical analysis of the 4 major currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, and the USD/JPY. I am passing all of the fundamental report recaps to my buddy Forex Gump, and he will be giving you your daily fundamental dose in his Piponomics blog.

With that said I will really be focusing on the charts and try to come up with high probability trade ideas purely based on technicals. You should always keep in mind that major news reports can be dangerous to an open trade so remember that if you have a trade open based solely on the charts. Ok, with that said, let’s take a look at the charts!

Chart Analysis:

EUR/USD

If you compare my chart from today and the chart I posted on Thursday, you’ll notice that they look almost exactly the same. After briefly pushing through its 50 SMA, the Euro climbed to 3000 before shooting back down. Now the pair is right back where it started and is re-testing the 50 SMA. I am actually going to recycle my trade idea from Thursday and buy the pair if it can break the 50 SMA again and target 3000.

Trade Idea:

Buy at 2975; Stop Loss= 2950; Target= 3000; Target 2= 3030

GBP/USD

Uh oh! Can you say Spinning Top? Not only is the daily stochastics in overbought territory, but we’ve seen a reversal candle now. Remember that we are still near a 15 year or so high for the Cable so this is a very strong resistance point. We might see the pair make another run up to 9850 but I think it’s going to take some fundamental juice to get it any higher than that. So technically speaking, all signs point to a reversal in favor of the Buck but knowing the Cable, it may try to spike up one more time before it falls.

USD/CHF

The Swissy made another valiant effort to climb above 2500 but unfortunately it lost the battle and ended up closing below it once again. On one hand, 2500 is proving to be a good resistance level. On the other hand, the price keeps seeming to gravitate to this level. Either we’re going to see a volatile breakout, or a volatile reversal. I’m going to use my same trade idea that I posted on Thursday to catch the wave if the pair happens to reverse. However, since the 50 SMA has moved up a little, I am going to adjust my entry and stop. I’m going to short the Swissy at 2440 with a stop at 2470 and target 2400. I’m basing this trade on the idea that if the pair can break it’s 50 SMA then it will most likely hit 2400.

Trade Idea:

Short at 2440; Stop Loss= 2470; Target= 2400; Target 2= 2380

USD/JPY

I command the Yen to fall! You know I’ve been raving about this pair to drop but with the BOJ being so dovish and keeping rates steady, there is just nothing that will push this pair down except maybe for the fact that this trend has been going on for a long time and may be exhausted. Notice that there was a doji formed on Friday’s candle and stochastics is overbought. My guess? Yep you guessed it…I think the pair is headed down…and that’s only what? the 10th time I’ve said that?

  • pipnpip

    Hey dude !

    For EUR/USD you used SMA 50 … but after how it’s looking in the picutre I bet it is EMA 50(exponential and not simple).

    Am I right, Big Pippin ?

  • pipnpip

    Hey dude !

    For EUR/USD you used SMA 50 … but after how it’s looking in the picutre I bet it is EMA 50(exponential and not simple).

    Am I right, Big Pippin ?

  • n00bie

    Hi BigPipin…

    Just wondering by any chance do you have the Expert Advisor implementation for this cowabunga system of yours?

    Cheers ;)

  • n00bie

    Hi BigPipin…

    Just wondering by any chance do you have the Expert Advisor implementation for this cowabunga system of yours?

    Cheers ;)

  • bigpippin

    pipnpip- OMG, haha I am so sorry. Yes I meant to say that its a 50 EMA. My other 2 moving averages (100 and 200) are SMAs and I guess I just got mixed up. Thank you for pointing that out and I’ll try to be more careful.

    N00bie- I don’t have an EA for the Cowabunga system because I’m not a MT4 expert. I’m sure someone can easily program it since it’s a fairly straightforward system.

    Happy trading!

  • bigpippin

    pipnpip- OMG, haha I am so sorry. Yes I meant to say that its a 50 EMA. My other 2 moving averages (100 and 200) are SMAs and I guess I just got mixed up. Thank you for pointing that out and I’ll try to be more careful.

    N00bie- I don’t have an EA for the Cowabunga system because I’m not a MT4 expert. I’m sure someone can easily program it since it’s a fairly straightforward system.

    Happy trading!