I haven’t touched on GBP/NZD in a while since it really hasn’t gone anywhere in the last two weeks, but I think it’s formed a pattern that could bring in sellers. On the one hour chart above, we saw strong resistance around the 1.7170 level, which also happens to be the post flash-crash strong level of interest on this pair. We can see a little double top type pattern, after which the market has moved lower to now test the rising lows, essentially forming the neckline. This is a market to watch and see if we do get that break and if sellers hop in to create some downside momentum.
EUR/AUD is displaying a textbook Fibonacci retracement setup that seems to line up with broken minor support around the 1.4550 level. This is a combination of technical arguments that can increase the potential of resistance forming, so we’re gonna be on the lookout for a full retest of that area and increasing our short technical bias if it does. If it retests, holds and reverses, the potential risk-to-reward and probability of success is pretty good if targeting the previous swing low just above the 1.4100 handle.
And to close out the intraday chart setups for October, I’m going with a very simple channel setup on CAD/CHF. This pair has been riding lower in the past week in a tight pattern, and with this early week bounce, we could see an opportunity to play it to the short side at a better price. The pair has yet to hit the top of the channel–and falling moving averages–and it might not get up there with the stochastic showing potentially short-term overbought conditions. With a big week of central bank events ahead, it might be a good idea to stay conservative and wait for a retest of the technical areas before trying to ride the channel lower!
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To get the complete picture and avoid getting blindsided by economic data, you also have to do your fundamental analysis. Lucky for us, Pip Diddy fills us in on what we need to know about fundamentals with his Daily Forex Fundamentals.
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