USD/JPY was able to smash past support at the 111.10 handle (dashed line) with great and convincing momentum but was forced to retreat when it reached 107.90. Now, the pair is back at the 111.10 handle, giving us a textbook break-and-retest setup to play with. If we apply our Fibonacci tool, we can see that price just recently bounced off the 61.8% retracement level, which is a confidence booster for our downside directional bias. Stochastic is already indicating oversold conditions, though, and the moving averages are already indicating an uptrend, so do be careful.
Looks like an ascending channel is beginning to form on USD/CHF’s 1-hour time frame. Price needs to go back down to test the channel support area to validate the forex chart pattern. And lucky us since price just got rejected at the channel’s resistance area, which happens to line up rather nicely with the price area with significant market interest at the 0.9780 handle. Our technical indicators are kinda worrying, though, since the moving averages are in uptrend mode while stochastic is signalling oversold conditions.
As I always say, one of the more conservative ways to play a descending channel is to look for opportunities to go short near the channel’s resistance area. Unfortunately, price is currently milling about near the channel’s support area, so conservative forex traders may wanna sit this one out. For the more aggressive traders, going long here is the standard scenario, but since the 100 SMA is presently acting as dynamic resistance and stochastic is pointing back down again, you may also want to prepare for a possible downside channel breakout. Anyhow, just make sure to practice proper risk management should you find a trade based on this or any of the other charts, alright?
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To get the complete picture and avoid getting blindsided by economic data, you also have to do your fundamental analysis. Lucky for us, Pip Diddy fills us in on what we need to know about fundamentals with his Daily Forex Fundamentals.