AUD/NZD broke past resistance at the 1.0960 handle but, the bullish momentum quickly got sapped when the pair found resistance at the 1.1280. Price is grudgingly moving ever lower, which implies that there are still a lot of buyers, although they’re currently being overwhelmed by the sellers. As such, our main directional bias is still to the upside, which is why we’re expecting a possible break-and-retest setup. And applying our Fibonacci tool, we can see that the resistance-turned-support area at 1.0960 is just below the 50% retracement level. In addition, the 200 SMA may potentially act as dynamic support if or when price reached that area, which is a real confidence booster, not to mention that the moving averages are already in uptrend mode.
Price has been bouncing up and down while grinding ever lower inside a descending channel. And as I keep saying, one of the most conservative ways to play a descending channel is to look for selling opportunities near the channel’s resistance. As such, more conservative forex traders may sit wanna sit this one out because price is currently at the channel’s support area. For the more aggressive forex traders, we have two scenarios in play. The first scenario is a simple bounce from the channel’s support area. And the second scenario is a possible downside channel breakout, given that stochastic is already indicating. Both are risky plays, so make sure to practice proper risk management should you find a trade based on this or any of the other charts, alright?
AUD/CAD managed to push past the 0.9950 minor psychological level, but was quickly sent back below the said price area. This gives us two possible setups: (1) price will break past 0.9950 again and move higher or (2) the pair respects resistance at 0.9950 and goes back down. Our moving averages seem to support the first scenario since the moving averages are in uptrend mode, and the 100 SMA is acting as dynamic support to boot. Not only that, price seems to be respecting the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and may even move as low as the 50% retracement level where the 200 SMA may act as dynamic support. As for the second scenario, stochastic is already indicating overbought conditions and 0.9950 is a price area with very significant market interest, as highlighted in the chart above.
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To get the complete picture and avoid getting blindsided by economic data, you also have to do your fundamental analysis. Lucky for us, Pip Diddy fills us in on what we need to know about fundamentals with his Daily Forex Fundamentals