CHF/JPY has been trading sideways while trapped inside a 100-pip trading range or rectangle, with resistance and support at the 123.80 and 122.80 handles respectively. Presently, price is milling about just above the forex chart pattern’s support area, but forex traders who want to trade within the range may want to note that stochastic is about to reach the overbought region, so there’s a small chance for a downside rectangle breakout. The moving averages are still in uptrend mode, however, and the 200 SMA is acting as dynamic support, so our main directional bias is still to the upside.
As I endlessly say, one of the most conservative ways to play an ascending channel is to look for support and then buying opportunities near the bottom of the channel. And it just so happens that price was rejected when it tested the bottom of the channel around the 86.60 handle. Looking at our technical indicators, stochastic is already pointing up and moving away from oversold territory, which is a bullish vote of confidence since it may mean that forex traders who are bearish on the pair may be exhausted already. Also, the moving averages are clearly in uptrend mode, but it’s a bit worrying that both the 100 and 200 SMAs failed to act as dynamic support since that could mean strong bearish interest or weak bullish interest.
An ascending triangle is usually considered a bullish continuation forex chart pattern, so the ascending triangle that formed on NZD/JPY’s 4-hour forex chart that you see up there is a bit out of place. Anyhow, we’ll take what we can get, so let’s get cracking. Again, our main directional bias is to the upside, but stochastic is still pointing down and the moving averages are essentially oscillating, so there’s no clear trade opportunity just yet. And while our main directional bias is to the upside, do note that triangles have a tendency to break in the opposite direction as well. In any case, just know that the base of the triangle is around 990 pips high, so a rally or selloff after a breakout could last for the same amount. As usual, just make sure to practice proper risk management should you find a trade based on this or any of the other charts, alright?
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To get the complete picture and avoid getting blindsided by economic data, you also have to do your fundamental analysis. Lucky for us, Pip Diddy fills us in on what we need to know about fundamentals with his Daily Forex Fundamentals