EUR/AUD has been respecting that there descending channel since late September. Presently, price is rather close to the top of the channel. And as I always say, the most conservative way to play a descending channel is to look for resistance near the top of the channel, so we should consider ourselves lucky since a trading opportunity may present itself soon. Looking at our technical indicators, the moving averages are actually oscillating, but they’re currently in downtrend mode, and the 100 SMA could potentially act as dynamic resistance to boot. Moreover, stochastic has just reached the overbought region, so the pair may start attracting sellers soon. The only other thing I have to point out is that price seems to have difficulty parting ways with the price area of interest around the 1.5470 handle, so there’s a slight possibility that price will continue trading sideways instead.
Is AUD/CHF in for further declines? Well, looking at its 1-hour forex chart, it looks like the pair has been consolidating into what appears to be a rising wedge, which is generally classified as a bearish forex chart pattern. Our moving averages are oscillating, so they aren’t really helping much. But if we zoom out to the higher time frames, we can see that the overall trend for the pair is still down. Stochastic is also pointing down, so forex traders bearish on the pair are possibly still in control already. But chances are good that they’ll lose steam soon, however, since stochastic is just about to reach oversold territory. Anyhow, if the bottom of the wedge is broken with convincing and sufficient bearish momentum, then the pair could likely move lower for around 250 pips since that is roughly the height of the forex chart pattern.
We were pretty giddy last Thursday because we thought that AUD/USD was finally ready to go back down. Unfortunately, the pair opted to trade sideways instead. But today looks like the day for AUD/USD to finally move back down. Price has already been closing below the 100 and 200 SMAs, which could mean that selling interest is strong. Stochastic is already indicating oversold conditions, however, and that could be worrisome since enough bulls could start coming in to stage a possible upside channel breakout. In any case, make sure to practice proper risk management should you find a trade based on this or any of the other charts, alright?
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To get the complete picture and avoid getting blindsided by economic data, you also have to do your fundamental analysis. Lucky for us, Pip Diddy fills us in on what we need to know about fundamentals with his Daily Forex Fundamentals