After breaking down and out of an ascending channel that we identified last Wednesday, NZD/CAD promptly formed a descending channel for us to play with. Price is currently making its way to the top of the channel, so a trading opportunity may pop up soon. And if we use our handy Fibonacci tool, we can see that the top of the channel lines up nicely with the 61.8% retracement level, and the 100 SMA would be acting as dynamic resistance as well when (or if) price reaches that area. But there’s also a good chance that price will not reach the top of the channel at all since the 50% retracement level sits right smack on the the 0.8750 minor psychological level, a price area of very significant market interest. Moreover, stochastic has been staying at the overbought area for a while now, so the bulls may be exhausted already.
An ascending triangle has formed on CHF/JPY’s 1-hour forex time frame, which is rather weird since an ascending triangle is generally considered a bullish forex chart pattern, and both the intermediate and long-term trends are still down. Looking at our technical indicators, the moving averages are still in downtrend mode, but they’re about to cross-over into an uptrend, which is worrying. As for stochastic, it’s currently pointing down and moving away from overbought territory, so the bears may be in control already. Also, the top side of the triangle site on the 122.60 handle, which happens to be a price area of interest. Overall, the path of resistance seems to be to the downside, but do prepare for a topside breakout as well. In any case, the volatility of the triangle is around 130 pips, so a rally or sell-off after a breakout could probably move for the same amount.
Do any of you guys remember the trading range or rectangle that we identified on AUD/JPY’s 1-hour forex chart back on Monday? Do any of you also remember that my primary breakout bias was to the downside? Well, I was wrong on that since price broke out to the upside, but if you were able to ride that, then congratulations on your 130 pips. Anyhow, for today’s play, I zoomed out a bit and found that a descending channel has just been confirmed. Not only that, but price is currently near the top of the channel, and stochastic is already signalling overbought conditions. Do note that stochastic is still pointing up, though, so forex traders who are bullish on the pair may not have given up just yet. As usual, make sure to practice proper risk management should you find a trade based on this or any of the other charts, alright?
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To get the complete picture and avoid getting blindsided by economic data, you also have to do your fundamental analysis. Lucky for us, Pip Diddy fills us in on what we need to know about fundamentals with his Daily Forex Fundamentals