Dollar up goes up, and now the dollar goes back down!

Here is a technical summary of what happened today in the majors:

EUR/USD– The Euro fought back with a vengeance today as it rallied to as high as 3200 and closed 78 pips higher than Friday at 3191.

Result: After losing 2 consecutve days to the Dollar, the Euro had a very decisive victory today and completely erased the Dollar’s gain from last week.

GBP/USD-Once again the Dollar and Sterling played see-saw as neither currency could push the other down. The Dollar made the first push followed by a very strong Sterling counter-attack. However, by the end of the day the Dollar made yet another push and ended up bringing the Sterling back down.

Result: We saw extreme pushes from both the Dollar and Sterling but at the end of the day it was another draw between the two currencies.

USD/CHF- The Swissy also made a huge rally against the Dollar today. Last Thursday and Friday, the Dollar had been giving a good beating on the Swissy but the Swissy fought back hard today and made a strong gain against the buck. The pair closed 97 pips lower than Friday’s close at 2242.

Result: The Dollar took a major defeat against the Swissy today but still holds the lead from last weeks Dollar rally.

USD/JPY- The Yen was able to push the Dollar back down after falling to it last Thursday and Friday. The Yen pushed the buck to as low as 117.21 before the Dollar pushed back, and ended up closing at 117.62. Today’s close was 60 pips lower than Friday’s close at 117.62.

Result: The Dollar suffered a clear defeat against the Yen today.

Chart Analysis: What’s going to happen next?

EUR/USD

The Euro met resistance at 3200 and it looks like we may see a little retracement. 4hr stochastics are in overbought territory and look like they are about to cross down which indicates that we may see some downward movement in the short term. Daily stochastics on the other hand are trending up which indicates that we could still see the Euro rally throughout this week. A run up to its previous swing high at around 3250 looks like a likely place for the Euro to gravitate towards. Tomorrow I would expect to see the Euro to fall to around 3150 and then I would expect a continuation of today’s rally.

Trade Idea:

Buy at 3150; Stop Loss= 3100; Target= 3240

We have a big target here so be patient. This trade may take a while.

GBP/USD

Right now it’s hard to tell where the Cable is going. I know you’re probably sick of hearing this but the Cable has been ranging for quite some time now. I’m going to stay away from trading this pair until we start seeing some normal movements again. Today’s daily candle was a spinning top and stochastics are bunched together which doesn’t really give me any help. I have no clue and can’t even make an educated guess as to where we’ll see the Cable go tomorrow. It’s pretty much a coin flip right now.

USD/CHF

The Swissy looks like it might be ready for another drop. After 2 straight days of a Dollar rally against the Swissy, the pair has finally cooled off. It met good resistance at the 50 EMA and 100 SMA on the daily chart and it looks like this momentum may continue. 4hr stochastics are in oversold territory which means we could see a pull back but the daily stochastics looks like it may be forming a bearish hidden divergence. I’d like to sell the pair on the pull back and set my target for 2150.

Trade Idea:

Buy USD/CHF at 2260; Stop Loss= 2360; Target= 2150

USD/JPY

After a nice drop today the Dollar has found support against the Yen at the daily 200 SMA. 4hr stochastics are trending down but it looks like we may be seeing a cross up soon and daily stochastics are trending up. Stochastics are telling me that the pair will bounce off of 200 SMA support and head back up towards the 100 SMA. Since the 4hr stochastics are technically still trending down we could still see a bit of movement to the downside first.

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