Be Careful…It’s Choppy Out There!

EUR/USD

I expected the Euro to pause from its drop and that’s exactly what it did today. The Euro rose back up to 4250 but fell slightly towards the end of the day. The bearish divergence is still in tact on the daily chart and stochastics are still trending down nicely. The Euro may continue to hover around 4250 or even spike above it, but I am still bearish and expect to see it fall back to 4200 in the short term.

GBP/USD

The Cable sure has been taking traders along for a ride as it has been extremely choppy for the past 2 weeks now. After falling hard yesterday, the Cable rallied back up to 2.0500 and now seems to be just cooling off. A bearish hidden divergence has appeared on the 4hr chart and the bearish divergence I mentioned yesterday on the daily chart is still in tact. However, because of today’s huge rally, daily stochastics have crossed up. 4hr stochastics are also trending up but are nearing overbought territory. I believe we’ll see this pair drop back down to 2.0400, we may have to just wait a little long for it to happen. Besides, if the Cable continues its pattern, then we should definitely see the pair do a 180 from today’s move and drop like a rock!

USD/CHF

The Dollar dropped back to 1700 against the Swissy today before bouncing back up to around 1740. Right now I’m getting mixed indications. 4hr stochastics have crossed up but daily stochastics are trending down. I would recommend that you hold off on trading this pair until things become a little clearer.

USD/JPY

Well the Dollar ran up to 115.00 like I said it would in yesterday’s post and now it has retraced down to around 114.70. 4hr stochastics are nearing overbought territory which means we could see the pair continue to fall in the short term. Daily stochastics are also trending down which helps confirm my bearish bias. Look for the pair to drop to around 114.00 tomorrow.

I’m not really big into fundamentals but I feel that they are important to discuss. In this section I will be posting fundamental tidbits that I find interesting from various sources. If you find an article that you think would benefit everyone, please email me (Big Pippin) with your username, the article, and a link to where members can read the entire article.

Now onto the Fundamentals:
  • Cause for yesterday’s Dollar rally:
    • The rally by the dollar "seems to have been prompted by a mix of profit taking and traders seeking a safe haven away from equity market turmoil," said James Hughes, a market analyst at CMC Markets."However, with a degree of normality already returning to stocks and little economic data due for release that seems likely to help consolidate these gains the downward trend looks set to resume in the near term," he said.
  • UK September retail sales saw the highest annual growth in 3 years:
    • The Office for National Statistics reported that retail sales in September rose 6.3 pct from a year ago, the highest rise since September 2004 and above analyst expectations for a 5.6 pct increase. In August sales rose 4.8 pct year-on-year, revised down from the earlier estimate of 4.9 pct.
News events to watch for tomorrow :
  • 10:00am ET- US Existing Home Sales

For a list of all of tomorrow’s news events, check out our Forex Calendar