After a brief pause, the Dollar continues its run

Recapping the Majors

EUR/USD- After briefly stalling around the 3600 level, the Euro continued its drop and headed towards 3500. The pair fell to as low as 3515 before rising back up and settling around 3530. The Euro has been steadily declining ever since it hit resistance at 3650 on April 26th.

Result: After a brief rally yesterday, the Euro once again lost momentum and fell hard against the Dollar, nearing the 3500 mark.

GBP/USD- The Sterling fell slightly today against the Dollar after retracing above 9950. The pair fell from that level and has pierced below 9800. The Sterling has been slowly declining against the Dollar after hitting its 15 year high back on April 17th at 2.0150.

Result: The Sterling fell slightly against the Dollar after reaching as high as 9950 and fell back below 9800.

USD/CHF- After facing resistance at its 50 EMA on the daily chart for several days, the pair was finally able to break it and headed near 2200. The pair got as high as 2195 before falling back down to 2180. The pair had previously been bouncing between 2100 and its 50 EMA, but has now broken that range. The pair will now face support at 2200.

Result: After facing resistance at its 50 EMA for several days, the Dollar was finally able to push through and rallied almost 100 pips today against the Swissy.

USD/JPY- The Dollar fell early on against the Yen as it dropped back down to the 119.50 mark. However, the Dollar gained some momentum and has since moved back up to 120.00 where it has currently settled at. The pair has been slowly declining after reaching 120.50 a few days ago.

Result: The Dollar fell early on against the Yen but managed to make a comeback and is now right back where it opened at around 120.00

Chart Analysis: What’s going to happen next?

EUR/USD

Well the Euro fell like I said it would yesterday, and I think we’ll still see it fall some more. However, we may see a slight retracement first as 4hr stochastics are crossing up after just hitting oversold territory. Daily stochastics are still trending down and I would expect this pair to continue to move down at least to 3500 in the next few days.

GBP/USD

The Cable is still falling, but at a very slow pace. You can see that a bearish trend channel is forming and I expect that this pair will continue to drop. 4hr stochastics are in oversold territory which means we could see some upward movement in the near future but daily stochastics have crossed down which means there could be more bearish movement in the medium term. Look for the pair to hang around the 9900 area, but I can see this pair heading down to 9800 in the next few days. We haven’t seen the pair make a really big drop yet and I think we might see it soon. I’d like to short at 9900 and set a target for 9800.

Trade Idea:

Sell GBP/USD at 9900; Stop Loss= 9970; Target= 9800

USD/CHF

Ok so I was completely wrong about this pair. Yesterday I mentioned the formation of a bearish hidden divergence but instead of moving down, the pair shot up higher and almost hit 2200. 4hr stochastics are in overbought territory which means the pair should probably cool off soon, but daily stochastics have crossed back up and are heading towards overbought territory. My guess is that the pair will find resistance around the 2200 mark and should fall to around 2150 from there.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY dropped to 119.50 early on but shot back up to 120.00 by the end of the day. I’m still bearish overall on this pair as daily stochastics are still trending down and are in overbought territory. Look for the pair to make a move back towards the 119.00 level within the next few days.

2 comments

  1. dollarbear

    Pippin!

    even though i’m bearish on the dollar long-term, i hedged my long positions last night on your prediction that the euro was headed down to 3.550 sometime today. well, sure enough, i picked up 80 pips overnight on my short positions. you saved me! thanks, and keep it real homie :)

    Reply
  2. dollarbear

    Pippin!

    even though i’m bearish on the dollar long-term, i hedged my long positions last night on your prediction that the euro was headed down to 3.550 sometime today. well, sure enough, i picked up 80 pips overnight on my short positions. you saved me! thanks, and keep it real homie :)

    Reply

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