Ready for Tomorrow’s Tier 1 Reports?

Before you trade the big NFP report on Friday, you’ll have not one, not two, but THREE news trade opportunities tomorrow!

1. BOE Interest Rate Decision

What happened last month?
The Bank of England (BOE) didn’t make any changes to both its interest rates and asset purchases so the markets had to wait until BOE Governor Mark Carney’s speech and quarterly inflation report to gauge the central bank’s biases. As it turned out, the BOE was optimistic about the economy but is not too excited over raising interest rates anytime soon.

What’s expected this time?
With zero dissention on the votes to keep its current policies steady, the BOE isn’t expected to make any changes this month. If we don’t see any announcement, then the pound is likely to continue its intraweek uptrend. However, we could see a convincing break below GBP/USD’s 1.6300 handle if BOE officials hint that they’ll need more positive reports before they hike rates.

2. ECB Interest Rate Decision

What happened last month?
As I mentioned in my post-ECB statement piece, Draghi was generally optimistic on the economy. Although he kept the door open for more stimulus, he also hinted that there won’t be more rate cuts in the near future. Not surprisingly, the euro experienced a broad rally.

What’s expected this time?
The ECB isn’t expected to cut its rates but judging by the jawbone palooza that we’re seeing from other ECB members, I wouldn’t be surprised if Super Mario says something that would pull the common currency lower.

3. U.S. Preliminary GDP (q/q)

What happened last quarter?
Back in late August the preliminary U.S. GDP surpassed expectations with a 2.5% growth instead of the expected 2.2% uptick. Not surprisingly, the dollar gained across the board. It probably didn’t hurt that we were days away from the much-awaited Fed Septaper.

What’s expected this time?
Uncle Sam’s growth is expected to have expanded by 3.0% in Q3 2013, higher than the previous 2.8% reading. Of course, this is before the U.S. government shutdown and the latest U.S. debt ceiling scare.

Also keep in mind that the report will be released at the same time as the ECB press conference, so we probably won’t see strong reaction or the usual correlation with the dollar unless the report significantly misses or surprises to the upside.

What a week, eh? And to think that those reports are just for tomorrow! Good luck to those who are planning to day trade tomorrow!