Talk about starting the brand new trading month with a bang! This week has FOUR employment reports lined up, which means FOUR big opportunities to bag some serious forex profits. Better mark your calendars with these upcoming jobs releases:
New Zealand (Tues, 10:45 pm GMT)
First up is the Q3 employment change figure from New Zealand, which is expected to show a 0.6% uptick in hiring. Analysts predict that this might be enough to push the jobless rate down from 5.6% to 5.5% for the period.
Since this report is released on a quarterly basis, it tends to spark a strong reaction from Kiwi pairs compared to other monthly releases. A quick review of the past reports reveals that the employment change figure came in better than expected for three out of the last four releases, which suggests a pretty good chance of seeing another strong figure for Q3 and a potential Kiwi rally.
Australia (Thurs, 1:30 am GMT)
Next up, the Land Down Under will be printing its monthly jobs data for October. Now this one can be a hit or miss, as the past releases have alternated between coming in way above expectations and falling significantly short of consensus.
The employment change figure is slated to print a 10.3K increase in hiring while the jobless rate is projected to hold steady at 6.1%. Forex market participants tend to take this jobs report with a grain of salt, as labor market statisticians are still grappling with the recent change in survey methodology. With that, the initial reaction among Aussie pairs tends to be short-lived, with a potential intraday reversal by the end of the Asian trading session.
Canada (Fri, 2:30 pm GMT)
In addition to the Canadian trade balance and Ivey PMI also scheduled this week, Canada’s jobs report might also set off some fireworks across the Loonie pairs’ forex charts. After showing an impressive 74.1K gain in September, only a 0.4K increase in hiring is expected for the month of October, just enough to keep the jobless rate unchanged at 6.8%.
Looking at the previous releases also shows that there is no clear trend so far, with the country printing impressive gains in one month, only to be erased by a negative reading the following month and vice versa. If this pattern carries on, another negative employment change figure might be seen, which could force the Loonie to return its recent gains.
United States (Fri, 2:30 pm GMT)
Last but most certainly not least is the U.S. non-farm payrolls report set to shake the forex market up before the end of the week. With the FOMC reverting back to its hawkish stance and confirming that the underutilization of labor resources is subsiding, dollar traders might be bracing themselves for a strong showing!
Hiring is expected to have increased by 229K in October, a slightly slower pace compared to September’s 248K rise but probably enough to keep the unemployment rate at 5.9%. A higher than expected NFP figure might allow the Greenback to extend its gains, but there’s still a good chance for disappointment since expectations are running high. In that case, profit-taking might take place and traders might start doubting the Fed’s rate hike time frame once more.
Which among these employment reports are you planning on trading? Share your thoughts in our comment box or cast your votes in our poll below!