Trading the U.S. and Canadian Employment Reports

Heads up, forex fellas! We’ve got a couple of employment reports set for release on Friday so y’all better read up and figure out how to make pips off these events.

Canadian Jobs Report

The Canadian jobs report has two main components: the employment change reading and the unemployment rate. The former indicates the change in the number of employed people during the reporting period while the latter shows the percentage of the labor force with jobs.

For the month of December, hiring is expected to have picked up by 10.3K, enough to recover most of the 10.7K jobs lost in the previous month. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 6.6%.

A quick review of the previous releases reveals that three out of the last five employment change reports printed stronger than expected results, suggesting that there could be a good chance of seeing a higher than expected figure for December. Besides, hiring might’ve picked up during the holiday season, although most of these could be part-time positions.

An upside surprise could pave the way for a relief rally for the Loonie, which has been suffering due to the continuous slide in oil prices. Then again, the recent oil industry slump could mean that some companies cut back production and probably increased layoffs.

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

As for the U.S. economy, the non-farm employment change figure might show an increase of 241K in hiring for December, slower compared to the previous 321K jump. Despite that, the jobless rate is slated to improve from 5.8% to 5.7% in the same period, keeping up the consistent pace of improvement since August last year.

Early labor market indicators, namely the employment components of the ISM surveys, painted a mixed picture for December. The employment sub-index of the ISM manufacturing PMI climbed from 54.9 to 56.8 while the labor component of the non-manufacturing PMI showed a drop from 56.7 to 56.0.

Should the actual NFP reading meet or beat expectations, it would indicate that the U.S. economy is still seeing above-average gains in hiring. In fact, economic analysts are even predicting that the November report might see an upgrade, making 2014 the best year of job creation in nearly a decade.

Bear in mind though that the U.S. has been churning out one impressive report after another recently, which means that expectations are running very high for the upcoming NFP release. With that, the chance of disappointment is also similarly high, as a lower than expected reading might force the Greenback to return most of its recent gains.

What are your plans for these employment releases? Do you think Uncle Sam will print another impressive reading?