Trading Guide: Australia’s Jobs Report

With only a couple of major economic events left before the end of the year, it’s only fitting that we prepare more for each of them. Here’s what we know about Australia’s upcoming employment reports.

On Thursday at 9:30 am GMT the Land Down Under will print its employment conditions for the month of November. Last month the unemployment rate clocked in at 5.7% as an increase in part-time employment barely made a dent on the big drop in full-time jobs. Meanwhile, participation rate remained at its 7-year low.

This time around market players are expecting 10,300 more jobs against last month’s 1,100 addition while the unemployment rate is expected to inch higher at 5.8%. These weak estimates aren’t surprising since the RBA itself has warned of weak employment conditions in the foreseeable future.

But what if the report surprises to the upside? Let’s take a look at AUD/USD’s behavior for the past two months when Australia’s jobs numbers both exceeded and missed expectations.

October 10, 2013
AU_October
November 7, 2013
AU_November

From the charts above we can observe three things:

1. AUD/USD reacts to changes in both the unemployment rate and number of additional jobs.

2. Depending on how badly the numbers miss or exceed expectations, AUD/USD’s Asian session move could range from 60-100 pips.

3. AUD/USD reaction only lasts until the Asian session. In fact, there’s a chance that the pair could retrace or fade its Asian session moves during the London session.

Thinking of news trading AUD/USD now? Don’t forget that the observations above are taken from just TWO samples and in no way guarantee the Aussie’s price action on Thursday. Use this guide as a supplement to your own research so that you’ll have a more solid trading plan.

Good luck and good trading, folks!

1 comment

  1. Pingback: AUD/CHF Break and Retest Setup - Missed Trade

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