U.S. Session Forex Recap – Nov. 23, 2016

  • Canadian headline retail sales up 0.6% vs. 0.7% forecast in Sept
  • Canada’s core retail sales flat in Sept vs. projected 0.2% uptick
  • Richmond manufacturing index up from -4 to +4 vs. +1 forecast
  • Euro zone consumer confidence index up from -8 to -6
  • U.S. existing home sales climbed from 5.49M to 5.60M vs. 5.43M consensus
  • OPEC source: Committee experts finished work “successfully”
  • Iran and Iraq still hesitant to cooperate in output deal

The Greenback was all over the place as the rallies seemed to fizzle and the U.S. currency settled in its role as counter currency.

Major Events:

Downbeat Canadian retail sales – Consumers weren’t in a spending mood in Canada last September, with both headline and core retail sales figures falling short of expectations. The former showed a 0.6% gain versus the projected 0.7% increase while the latter printed a flat reading instead of rising by 0.2%.

Components of the report indicated that gains were seen in 7 out of 11 subsectors, led by a strong 2.4% pickup in purchases of motor vehicles and parts. Sales at gasoline stations also increased but this was offset by declines in supermarkets and liquor stores. On a less downbeat note, the August report saw upgrades from a 0.1% decline to a 0.1% uptick for the headline figure and from a flat reading to a 0.2% increase for the core figure.

Strong medium-tier U.S. data – Uncle Sam’s reports were still in the green but these figures did little to extend the dollar’s climb. The Richmond manufacturing index jumped from -4 to +4 to indicate a return to industry expansion, stronger than the estimated rise to +1. Existing home sales climbed from 5.49 million to 5.60 million instead of dropping to the 5.43 million consensus.

OPEC output deal expectations – Day 2 of the OPEC technical talks among committee experts came to a close, and sources said that they were able to finish their work “successfully.” Still, Iran and Iraq are hesitant to cooperate with the rest of the members of the cartel.

Keep in mind that Iran is still trying to make up for its lost market share after getting slapped with Western sanctions on its oil shipments a few years back. Meanwhile, Iraq has argued that it needs to ramp up oil sales to fund its war against the Islamic State. So far, there have been no details on the “three new proposals” that Iraq has promised to show this week but OPEC members appear to be bracing for a 4% to 4.5% output cut.

Major Market Movers:

USD –  The dollar had trouble sustaining its climb and even returned some of its recent gains to its peers.

USD/JPY crawled up from 110.79 to a high of 111.36, USD/CHF popped up from 1.0100 to a high of 1.0135 before treading sideways, EUR/USD consolidated above 1.0600, and AUD/USD retreated from .7400 to .7415.

Watch Out For:

  • 12:30 am GMT: Australia construction work done q/q
  • Japanese banks closed on a holiday today

See also:

London Session Recap

Asian Session Recap

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