U.S. Session Forex Recap – July 13, 2016

  • U.S. JOLTS job openings down from 5.85M to 5.50M
  • U.S. wholesale inventories rose 0.1% vs. 0.2% forecast
  • FOMC member Bullard: Not worried about a U.S. recession
  • OPEC lowered global growth forecast from 3.1% to 3.0%

Most major pairs carried on with their moves from the previous trading sessions, as there were wasn’t much change in market sentiment throughout the day.

Major Events:

Medium-tier U.S. economic data – Only a couple of minor data points were released from the U.S. economy in the latest New York session. The JOLTS job openings figure was weaker than expected as it slid from 5.85M to 5.50M, lower than the consensus at 5.74M, indicating fewer job opportunities available. Keep in mind, however, that this report is for the month of May so the data is delayed but could still be used to gauge labor market trends.

Meanwhile, U.S. wholesale inventories were up 0.1%, lower than the projected 0.2% uptick and the previous 0.7% rise. In this case, a lower figure is actually better for the economy because it shows that stockpiles are dropping presumably due to higher purchases. This also suggests that businesses will pick up production in order to keep up with rising demand.

FOMC member Bullard’s testimony – It was FOMC policymaker James Bullard’s turn on the mic yesterday and he followed up with fellow Fed official George’s upbeat remarks in saying that he sees no risk of a recession in the U.S. economy. While he said that he expects a slower pace of jobs growth in the coming months, he mentioned that this doesn’t mean that additional stimulus is necessary.

Updated OPEC forecasts – The OPEC released its monthly oil market report, which didn’t feature a lot of changes on their outlook for the actual commodity but showed a downgrade for global growth estimates. The organization expects the global economy to expand by 3.0% this year, down from the previous 3.1% estimate, due to Brexit risks.

Major Currency Movers:

JPY – The yen chalked up yet another losing day, as speculations of additional stimulus weighed on the Japanese currency.

USD/JPY popped up from just above the 104.00 mark to a high of 104.96, EUR/JPY rallied all the way up to peak at 116.40, GBP/JPY was up roughly 300 pips to the 139.50 area, and AUD/JPY made it up to the 80.00 major psychological resistance.

GBP – The British pound was one of the strongest performers these days, with traders lightening up on their short holdings ahead of the BOE decision.

GBP/USD is now testing the resistance at the 1.3300 major psychological level, EUR/GBP is back below the .8400 handle to a low of .8320, GBP/AUD climbed up to the resistance at 1.7450, and GBP/NZD rose 250 pips to a high of 1.8247.

Watch Out For:

  • Tentative: Chinese trade balance (320B CNY expected, 325B CNY previous)
  • 1:30 am GMT: Australia’s Westpac consumer sentiment (-1.0% previous)
  • 1:30 am GMT: RBNZ official McDermott’s testimony
  • 5:30 am GMT: Japan’s revised industrial production

See also:

Asian Session Recap

London Session Recap

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