U.S. Session Forex Recap – June 29, 2016

  • U.S. final Q1 GDP reading upgraded from 0.8% to 1.1%
  • U.S. GDP upgrade buoyed by stronger than expected exports
  • CB consumer confidence index up from 92.4 to 98.0 vs. 93.2 forecast
  • Richmond manufacturing index slumped from -1 to -7
  • WTI crude oil climbed back to $48/barrel

Currency pairs started picking up the pieces after the post-Brexit fallout, lifted by gains in equities and commodities.

Major Events:

U.S. final GDP reading – Check out Uncle Sam showin’ everyone who’s boss! The U.S. GDP reading for the first quarter of the year was already pretty healthy at its initially estimated 0.8% figure but analysts were still expecting to see an upgrade to 1.0%. Lo and behold, the actual reading showed a 1.1% expansion thanks to stronger than expected export activity.

Prior to the Brexit decision, this probably would’ve boosted rate hike expectations for the Fed but for now it appears to have brought a bit of risk appetite back in the financial markets. Other reports from the U.S. economy came in mixed, with the CB consumer confidence index up from 92.4 to 98.0 versus the 93.2 forecast and the Richmond manufacturing index showing a sharper contraction by dropping from -1 to -7.

Comments from EU officials – With the EU Summit going on, traders have also been paying extra close attention to remarks from its leaders and policymakers.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has mentioned that she regrets the Brexit decision by the U.K. but that there’s no backing out now. She pointed out that the EU has managed to weather many headwinds in the past *cough, Greek debt drama, cough* and that the region could be strong enough to withstand a Brexit.

Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem added that the EU shouldn’t take a hostile approach in negotiating with the UK but European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker reiterated that outgoing UK Prime Minister David Cameron should provide clarity.

Meanwhile, ECB head Draghi wasn’t around for the actual summit but comments crossing the newswires showed that he expects euro zone growth to weaken due to slower UK growth and trade activity. Here are some more ways the Brexit could affect the euro zone.

Major Currency Movers:

GBP – The British pound was noticeably lighter in the past few hours, slowly trying to pull up from its recent sharp dive.

GBP/USD pulled up to a high of 1.3407 before letting bears take over again, GBP/JPY climbed to a high of 137.33 just short of filling its weekend gap, EUR/GBP retreated to a low of .8251 before climbing back above .8300, and GBP/AUD found resistance around 1.8140.

Watch Out For:

  • 12:50 am GMT: Japanese retail sales y/y (-1.6% expected, -0.9% previous)
  • 2:00 am GMT: Australian HIA new home sales (-4.7% previous)

See also:

Asian Session Recap

London Session Recap

Bonnie and Clyde, peanut butter and jelly, Kanye West and Kanye West. Some things just go well together.

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