U.S. Session Forex Recap – June 24, 2016

  • Results from U.K. polling centers trickling in, leave camp leading so far
  • U.S. initial jobless claims at 259K, lower than 271K estimate
  • U.S. new home sales at 551K versus 561K forecast, 586K previous
  • U.S. flash manufacturing PMI up from 50.7 to 51.4 vs. 50.5 forecast

The latest U.S. trading session was filled with heart-stopping moments, as U.K. voters continued casting their votes and a few polling centers started to release their results.

Major Events:

EU referendum updates – Traders were glued to the tube as the EU referendum started and exit polls have been showing mixed results. The last few surveys released suggested a slight lead in favor of Bremain, getting pound bulls’ hopes up, but the first few numbers being released from regional kingdoms – I mean, areas – are showing a lead for the “leave” camp.

Areas such as South Tyneside, Kettering, Swindon, Hartlepool, and Basildon chalked up a victory for those voting to leave while East Ayrshire, West Tyrone (Lannister?), Birmingham, and Elian Siar showed a lead for the “remain” camp. Keep in mind, however, that the total number of actual votes will determine the outcome and not the number of areas but these area updates should give pretty good clues of how the final tally might turn out.

It’s still a bit early to make any calls, though, since only 15 out of 382 polling centers have released their results so far but the count is showing that 50.2% voted to leave while 49.8% voted to stay. It’s gonna be a nail-biter, this one!

U.S. economic data – Data from the U.S. economy came in mostly stronger than expected, with initial jobless claims coming in at 259K versus the 271K estimate and the flash manufacturing PMI showing a faster pace of industry expansion. The index rose from 50.7 to 51.4, outpacing the 50.5 estimate. On the other hand, new home sales fell short of expectations at 551K versus the 561K forecast while the previous reading was downgraded to 586K.

Major Currency Movers:

GBP – Pound pairs were all over the place as the U.K. currency initially advanced during the start of the referendum, plummeted sharply when some votes came in, then jumped right back up by hundreds of pips… in just a few hours!

GBP/USD climbed to a high of 1.5019, tumbled to a low of 1.4292, then spiked back up to the 1.4500 area. GBP/JPY peaked at 160.16, dropped to 147.67, then rallied up to 153.00. EUR/GBP bounced off .7601 to a high of .7913, then retreated to .7770.

EUR – The euro was on a rollercoaster ride of its own, tracking the pound’s wild price action for the past few hours.

EUR/USD popped up to a high of 1.1430 at the start of the U.S. session then sank to a low of 1.1270. EUR/JPY peaked at 120.71, dipped to 116.52, then jumped back to 119.50. EUR/CHF jumped to a high of 1.1013 then plummeted to a low of 1.0838.

See also:

Asian Session Recap

London Session Recap

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