U.S. Session Forex Recap – June 14, 2016

  • YouGov Brexit poll: 46% leave, 39% remain
  • ORB Brexit poll: 49% leave, 48% remain
  • ICM Brexit poll: 53% leave, 47% remain
  • New Zealand food price index down 0.5%

It’s all about the polls! The lack of top-tier data during the U.S. trading session left traders focused on the Brexit surveys and overall market uncertainty.

Major Events:

More Brexit opinion polls – Another batch of Brexit surveys pushed the pound around in the New York session, as more polls showed a lead in favor of those voting to leave the EU.

Around the start of the session, a few news sites showed an erroneous headline that indicated a lead for the “stay” camp, causing the pound to surge just before the reports were corrected. Results from various agencies such as YouGov, ORB, and ICM all showed a slight lead for a Brexit, as the “leave” campaign has been stepping up their game now that the EU referendum is just a week away.

If you’re wondering why this is such a big deal, make sure you read our Brexit primer here and keep tabs on how the next set of polls turn out.

Risk-off flows on market uncertainty – Risk aversion stepped into high gear over the past few hours, as market watchers continued to react to overall uncertainty. U.S. equities all ended the day lower, possibly because investors also booked profits ahead of this week’s FOMC statement, while the S&P 500 VIX jumped to 20.37 – its highest level since March.

Major Currency Movers:

GBP – The British pound was one of the weakest performers for the day, as the currency was weighed down by Brexit survey results.

GBP/USD sank from a high of 1.4321 back to the 1.4200 handle, GBP/JPY pulled up to its week open price around 152.00 then dropped to 150.72, EUR/GBP retreated to .7895 then climbed to .7945, and GBP/AUD is down to the 1.9230 area.

 

Watch Out For:

  • 1:00 am GMT: Australian MI inflation expectations
  • 1:30 am GMT: Australia NAB business confidence
  • 4:30 am GMT: Japan’s revised industrial production (upgrade from 0.3% to 0.4% expected)

See also:

Asian Session Recap

London Session Recap

Bonnie and Clyde, peanut butter and jelly, Kanye West and Kanye West. Some things just go well together.

In forex trading, you get better odds at securing pips when your fundamental analysis is complemented by technical analysis.

Head on to Big Pippin’s Daily Chart Art for some pip-locking technical setups!