U.S. Session Forex Recap – Apr. 21, 2016

  • Canada’s wholesale sales down 2.2% vs. estimated 0.4% dip
  • U.S. existing home sales up from 5.07M to 5.33M vs. 5.29M forecast
  • U.S. crude oil inventories up 2.1 million barrels vs. 2.2 million forecast
  • BOC Gov Poloz: It may take more than three years to recover from oil slump
  • New Zealand visitor arrivals up by 4.1% in March

After a few days of losing ground to its peers, the U.S. dollar was able to make a slight comeback. Can it go for more gains?

Major Events:

BOC Governor Poloz’s speech – The BOC head honcho wasn’t particularly upbeat about Canada’s economic prospects this time, as he admitted that it may take more than three years before they’re able to recover from the oil industry slump. Keep in mind that the Canadian economy is heavily dependent on its energy sector since it accounts for a huge chunk of its production and export activity.

Still, Poloz maintained that recent economic data has been “encouraging on balance” but that the Loonie’s appreciation has dampened export demand. Is that a bit of jawboning I’m hearing?

Oil price gains – Not even the rise in U.S. crude oil inventories was able to stop the commodity’s price from advancing, probably because traders were already able to price in their expectations upon seeing the API data yesterday. According to the EIA, stockpiles rose by 2.1 million barrels, slightly lower than the estimated buildup of 2.2 million barrels and much smaller than the previous increase of 6.6 million barrels.

Major Currency Movers:

USD – The Greenback was able to stop the bleeding against most of its rivals, with traders lightening up on their holdings ahead of today’s event risks.

EUR/USD retreated from a high of 1.1388 to the 1.1300 handle, GBP/USD found resistance near 1.4400 and is down to 1.4325, USD/JPY broke above the 109.50 minor psychological resistance to a high of 109.80, and USD/CHF broke out of its tight consolidation and is up to .9713.

CAD – The Loonie shrugged off downbeat remarks from Poloz and weaker than expected Canadian wholesale sales data, as it drew support from the oil rally.

USD/CAD broke below the 1.2700 handle and is testing 1.2650, CAD/JPY popped up to a high of 86.75, EUR/CAD is down to the 1.4280 area, and GBP/CAD slipped to a low of 1.8128.

Watch Out For:

  • 1:30 am GMT: Australia’s NAB quarterly business confidence
  • 3:00 am GMT: New Zealand credit card spending y/y

See also:

Asian Session Recap

London Session Recap

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